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023-Consumo aparente per cápita anual (origen formal) Fecha Carne de res (kg/ Carne de pollo (kCarne de cerdo (kg/hab) 2015 2016 2017 2018

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE

19.1 18.6 18.1 18.2

30.4 31.5 32.8 33.8

AÑO 2015 2016

7.8 8.7 9.4 10.0

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE RES 2015 2016 2017 53,145.64 113,940.04 39,910.10 110,980.59 101,101.73 52,784.33 34,388.35 22,467.05 19,311.34 84,407.77 57,772.41 87,544.73 43,766.99 157,269.35 128,742.26 23,446.60 32,095.79 91,407.00 131,300.98 146,035.83 119,730.30 62,524.28 32,095.79 126,167.41 54,708.74 57,772.41 45,059.79 129,737.88 88,263.41 82,395.04 71,902.92 46,538.89 38,622.68 120,359.23 51,353.26 60,508.86

2017 2018

2018 27,618.51 87,274.51 50,818.07 103,845.62 108,264.58 100,531.39 17,675.85 90,588.73 101,636.14 109,369.32 30,932.74 78,436.58

Demanda Res 180,000.00 160,000.00 140,000.00 120,000.00 100,000.00 80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 20,000.00 -

0

2

4 2015

6 2016

8 2017

10 2018

12

14

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE

POBLACION 48,202,617 48,747,632 49,291,925 49,834,727

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE CERDO 2015 2016 2017 2018 19,621.83 10,871.17 69,321.39 12,021.28 14,318.47 20,772.12 13,830.76 70,179.43 34,972.36 45,098.54 36,604.98 28,228.21 46,128.55 50,813.40 73,229.30 77,119.67 18,729.28 18,330.83 33,266.04 25,117.55 23,738.00 56,835.84 35,855.66 76,082.76 23,738.00 48,721.50 13,147.72 40,124.06 45,268.76 30,803.34 22,159.09 39,412.89 43,604.07 29,861.77 22,235.33 68,309.53 31,678.94 30,803.34 66,767.86 39,412.89 44,409.15 56,080.05 57,259.23 35,081.27 29,772.99 25,112.49 19,666.73 57,245.43

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE 2015 2016 50,880.54 109,437.89 67,840.72 118,557.72 88,192.94 129,957.50 101,761.08 132,237.45 118,721.26 125,397.58 128,897.37 132,237.45 135,681.44 136,797.36 145,857.55 116,277.76 142,465.51 123,117.63 159,425.69 131,097.47 169,601.80 136,797.36 156,033.66 143,637.23

Demanda Cerdo 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 -

0

2 2015

4

6 2016

8 2017

10 2018

12

14

CION POR DEMANDA DE POLLO 2017 2018 117,790.90 118,792.29 125,390.32 121,838.25 121,590.61 134,022.07 129,190.02 137,068.03 132,989.73 140,113.98 134,889.58 137,068.03 138,689.29 143,159.94 136,789.44 143,159.94 144,388.85 146,205.90 146,288.70 150,774.83 146,288.70 152,297.81 142,489.00 159,912.70

Res Mes Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18

Cerdo Proporción por demanda 0.0577 0.1205 0.0374 0.0917 0.0475 0.0255 0.1426 0.0679 0.0594 0.1409 0.0781 0.1307 0.1257 0.1115 0.0248 0.0637 0.1735 0.0354 0.1611 0.0354 0.0637 0.0973 0.0513 0.0566 0.0447 0.0592 180000 0.0216 160000 0.0981 140000 0.1443 120000 0.1025 100000 0.1342 80000 0.1414 60000 0.0505 40000 0.0924 20000 0.0433 0 0.0678 0 2 4 0.0305 0.0962 Column N 0.0560 0.1145 0.1194

Proporción por demanda Jan-15 0.0522 Feb-15 0.0381 Mar-15 0.0930 Apr-15 0.1227 May-15 0.0498 Jun-15 0.0631 Jul-15 0.0631 Aug-15 0.1204 Sep-15 0.1160 Oct-15 0.0843 Nov-15 0.1181 Dec-15 0.0792 Jan-16 0.0256 Feb-16 0.0490 Mar-16 0.1063 Apr-16 0.1198 May-16 0.0432 Jun-16 0.1340 Jul-16 0.1149 Aug-16 0.0726 Sep-16 0.0704 Oct-16 0.0726 Nov-16 0.1322 Dec-16 0.0592 Jan-17 0.1496 Demanda Pollo Feb-17 0.0298 Mar-17 0.0790 Apr-17 0.1580 May-17 0.0718 Jun-17 0.0774 Jul-17 0.0284 Aug-17 0.0478 Sep-17 0.0480 Oct-17 0.1441 Nov-17 0.1236 Dec-17 6 8 0.0424 10 12 Jan-18 0.0241 Column Column P Feb-18O 0.1408 Mar-18 0.0566 Apr-18 0.1548 May-18 0.0504 Mes

14 Column

Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

0.1108 0.0195 0.0999 0.1121 0.1206 0.0341 0.0865

Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

0.1527 0.0805 0.0791 0.1371 0.0791 0.0704 0.1149

Pollo Mes

Pollo

10 Column P

12

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 14 16 Jan-18 Column Q Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18

Proporción por demanda 0.0347 0.0463 0.0602 0.0694 0.0810 0.0880 0.0926 0.0995 0.0972 0.1088 0.1157 0.1065 0.0713 0.0772 0.0846 0.0861 0.0817 0.0861 0.0891 0.0757 0.0802 0.0854 0.0891 0.0935 0.0729 0.0776 0.0752 0.0799 0.0823 0.0834 0.0858 0.0846 0.0893 0.0905 0.0905 0.0881 0.0705 0.0723 0.0796 0.0814 0.0832

Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

0.0814 0.0850 0.0850 0.0868 0.0895 0.0904 0.0949

Fecha

N Periodo

Proporción por demanda

Demanda consumo Kg/Hab

Nivel medio (st)

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 Jan-15

0 1

77,913.26 0.0577

53,146

53,144.8

Feb-15

2

0.1205

110,981

110,979.4

Mar-15

3

0.0374

34,388

34,387.9

Apr-15

4

0.0917

84,408

84,406.7

May-15

5

0.0475

43,767

43,765.5

Jun-15

6

0.0255

23,447

23,445.8

Jul-15

7

0.1426

131,301

131,299.6

Aug-15

8

0.0679

62,524

62,523.3

Sep-15

9

0.0594

54,709

54,707.9

Oct-15

10

0.1409

129,738

129,736.5

Nov-15

11

0.0781

71,903

71,902.3

Dec-15

12

0.1307

120,359

120,358.2

Jan-16

13

0.1257

113,940

113,939.0

Feb-16

14

0.1115

101,102

101,100.7

Mar-16

15

0.0248

22,467

22,466.1

Apr-16

16

0.0637

57,772

57,771.4

May-16

17

0.1735

157,269

157,268.4

Jun-16

18

0.0354

32,096

32,094.8

Jul-16

19

0.1611

146,036

146,034.8

Aug-16

20

0.0354

32,096

32,094.8

Sep-16

21

0.0637

57,772

57,771.4

Oct-16

22

0.0973

88,263

88,262.4

Nov-16

23

0.0513

46,539

46,537.9

Dec-16

24

0.0566

51,353

51,352.3

Jan-17

25

0.0447

39,910

39,909.1

Feb-17

26

0.0592

52,784

52,783.3

Mar-17

27

0.0216

19,311

19,310.3

Apr-17

28

0.0981

87,545

87,543.7

May-17

29

0.1443

128,742

128,741.3

Jun-17

30

0.1025

91,407

91,406.0

Jul-17

31

0.1342

119,730

119,729.3

Aug-17

32

0.1414

126,167

126,166.4

Sep-17

33

0.0505

45,060

45,058.8

Oct-17

34

0.0924

82,395

82,394.0

Nov-17

35

0.0433

38,623

38,621.7

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

0.0678 0.0305 0.0962 0.0560 0.1145 0.1194 0.1108 0.0195 0.0999 0.1121 0.1206 0.0341 0.0865

60,509 27,619 87,275 50,818 103,846 108,265 100,531 17,676 90,589 101,636 109,369 30,933 78,437

60,507.9 27,617.5 87,273.5 50,817.1 103,844.6 108,263.6 100,530.4 17,674.8 90,587.7 101,635.1 109,368.3 30,931.7 78,435.6

Tendencia (Tt)

Estacionalidad (Ct)

Estacionalidad Normalizada

Ft

0.786053472614009 1.17549609233242 0.420959176538709 1.10514309978882 1.44785428794928 0.811729332312856 1.38105721103715 1.02354854402352 0.851414017107905 1.35138837791599 0.621792398445256 100.85

1.02356398993408

56.9

1.0

1.0

41,819.4

159.0

1.0

1.0

130,829.7

23.4

1.0

1.0

14,505.4

111.7

1.0

1.0

93,775.3

39.7

1.0

1.0

63,653.5

3.7

1.0

1.0

19,049.7

194.3

1.0

1.0

183,210.9

72.4

1.0

1.0

64,588.7

58.5

1.0

1.0

47,027.2

191.0

1.0

1.0

177,905.4

88.4

1.0

1.0

45,313.2

173.9

1.0

1.0

125,330.6

162.3

1.0

1.0

116,048.4

139.3

1.0

1.0

103,050.3

0.1

1.0

1.0

22,467.0

62.5

1.0

1.0

58,770.7

238.2

1.0

1.0

161,320.6

16.6

1.0

1.0

32,393.4

217.9

1.0

1.0

150,174.2

16.1

1.0

1.0

32,417.6

61.5

1.0

1.0

59,062.7

115.3

1.0

1.0

90,797.9

41.3

1.0

1.0

47,488.0

49.8

1.0

1.0

52,546.1

29.4

1.0

1.0

40,644.9

52.1

1.0

1.0

54,138.7

-7.1

1.0

1.0

19,119.1

113.5

1.0

1.0

90,721.7

186.1

1.0

1.0

134,137.0

119.8

1.0

1.0

95,001.2

169.6

1.0

1.0

124,986.9

180.7

1.0

1.0

131,951.2

37.1

1.0

1.0

46,281.6

103.0

1.0

1.0

85,894.6

25.4

1.0

1.0

39,511.9

64.1 5.8 111.3 46.6 140.3 147.8 133.9 -12.8 116.1 135.4 148.9 10.0 93.9

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

62,814.4 27,833.3 91,501.1 52,637.1 109,454.2 114,323.1 106,153.1 17,125.1 95,695.4 107,729.7 116,214.9 31,400.2 82,942.8 78,436.9 78,435.0 78,435.6 78,434.8 78,434.8 78,434.9 78,438.5 78,435.0 78,434.9 78,434.8 78,436.6 78,435.1

error

error^2

ABS(et/Dt)

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE

-11,326.2

128,283,261.8

0.2

DICIEMBRE

19,849.1

393,987,158.1

0.2

PROM

-19,882.9

395,331,059.3

0.6

9,367.6

87,751,078.6

0.1

T0

19,886.5

395,473,600.1

0.5

S0

-4,396.9

19,332,534.9

0.2

51,909.9

2,694,639,531.9

0.4

2,064.4

4,261,689.1

0.0

Fecha

-7,681.5

59,005,398.6

0.1

2015

48,167.6

2,320,114,700.3

0.4

2016

-26,589.7

707,014,049.7

0.4

2017

4,971.3

24,714,069.2

0.0

2018

2,108.4

4,445,270.4

0.0

1,948.5

3,796,843.7

0.0

AÑO

-0.1

0.0

0.0

2015

998.3

996,578.2

0.0

2016

4,051.3

16,412,868.7

0.0

2017

297.6

88,546.7

0.0

2018

4,138.3

17,125,739.6

0.0

321.8

103,552.3

0.0

1,290.3

1,664,868.7

0.0

Alfa

2,534.5

6,423,661.1

0.0

1

949.1

900,838.3

0.0

1,192.9

1,422,929.2

0.0

734.8

539,909.7

0.0

1,354.4

1,834,407.7

0.0

023-Consumo aparent

200,000

180,000

200,000

-192.3

36,970.4

0.0

3,177.0

10,093,359.7

0.0

5,394.7

29,102,879.2

0.0

3,594.2

12,918,428.5

0.0

5,256.6

27,631,828.3

0.0

5,783.8

33,452,767.4

0.0

1,221.8

1,492,827.1

0.0

3,499.6

12,247,146.5

0.0

889.2

790,763.7

0.0

2,305.5 214.7 4,226.6 1,819.0 5,608.6 6,058.5 5,621.7 -550.8 5,106.7 6,093.6 6,845.6 467.5 4,506.2

5,315,469.8 46,115.5 17,864,132.7 3,308,782.5 31,456,758.3 36,705,281.1 31,603,764.1 303,368.2 26,078,233.5 37,131,936.6 46,862,047.0 218,565.6 20,306,013.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE RES 2015

2016

2017

2018

53,145.64

113,940.04

39,910.10

27,618.51

110,980.59

101,101.73

52,784.33

87,274.51

34,388.35

22,467.05

19,311.34

50,818.07

84,407.77

57,772.41

87,544.73

103,845.62

43,766.99

157,269.35

128,742.26

108,264.58

23,446.60

32,095.79

91,407.00

100,531.39

131,300.98

146,035.83

119,730.30

17,675.85

62,524.28

32,095.79

126,167.41

90,588.73

54,708.74

57,772.41

45,059.79

101,636.14

129,737.88

88,263.41

82,395.04

109,369.32

71,902.92

46,538.89

38,622.68

30,932.74

120,359.23

51,353.26

60,508.86

78,436.58

76,722.50

75,558.83

74,348.65

75,582.67

PROM TOTAL

75,543.33

100.85 77,913.26 023-Consumo aparente per cápita anual (origen formal) Carne de res (kg/hab) Carne de pollo (kg/hab) Carne de cerdo (kg/hab) 19.1

30.4

7.8

18.6

31.5

8.7

18.1

32.8

9.4

18.2

33.8

10.0

POBLACION

ME

48,202,617

3,858.5

48,747,632 49,291,925

MAPE

49,834,727

0.1

Beta

Gama

0.001767389413924

1

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 200,000

180,000

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 3

1

13

25

37

2

14

26

38

3

15

27

39

4

16

28

40

5

17

29

41

6

18

30

42

7

19

31

43

8

20

32

44

9

21

33

45

10

22

34

46

11

23

35

47

12

24

36

48

FACTORES ESTACIONALES

Promedios

0.726297211672295 1.53179032 0.52795501 0.35959769 0.78641005791396 1.51459205184738 1.35735395 0.69733278 0.468665185142583 0.30122637

1.1348386 1.17602934438368

0.2547823 0.65992671 0.421150140460965

1.14878109521145 0.77353617 1.15347837 1.34678211 1.10564443690831 0.594847824551476 2.10289784 1.69404074 1.40225797 1.44851109257332 0.3182322924504 0.42858489 1.20117497 1.30039811 0.812097565209887 1.7796648794808 1.94743872

1.5712877 0.22834355

1.381683713835

0.846302653135338 0.42743368 1.65357705 1.16873808 1.02401286658846 0.73950536951488

0.7683487 0.58978369 1.30956325 0.851800252565479

1.75129683630345 1.17229375 1.07703993 1.40737517 1.35200142174427 0.969278747878893

0.6172917 0.50419781 0.39752962 0.62207446835097

1.6202856099159 0.68023954 0.78887134 1.00671679

1.0240283195059 12.0054436800402

METODO WINTERS

DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

METODO WINTERS

DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Normalizacion 0.786053472614009 1.17549609233242 0.420959176538709 1.10514309978882 1.44785428794928 0.811729332312856 1.38105721103715 1.02354854402352 0.851414017107905 1.35138837791599 0.621792398445256 1.02356398993408 12

Fecha

N Periodo

Proporción por demanda

Demanda consumo Kg/Hab

Nivel medio (st)

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 Jan-15

0 1

28,691.55 0.0522

19,622

19,621.1

Feb-15

2

0.0381

14,318

14,317.7

Mar-15

3

0.0930

34,972

34,971.5

Apr-15

4

0.1227

46,129

46,127.0

May-15

5

0.0498

18,729

18,728.7

Jun-15

6

0.0631

23,738

23,736.7

Jul-15

7

0.0631

23,738

23,737.2

Aug-15

8

0.1204

45,269

45,267.9

Sep-15

9

0.1160

43,604

43,603.0

Oct-15

10

0.0843

31,679

31,677.8

Nov-15

11

0.1181

44,409

44,407.9

Dec-15

12

0.0792

29,773

29,772.1

Jan-16

13

0.0256

10,871

10,870.2

Feb-16

14

0.0490

20,772

20,771.1

Mar-16

15

0.1063

45,099

45,097.5

Apr-16

16

0.1198

50,813

50,812.4

May-16

17

0.0432

18,331

18,329.8

Jun-16

18

0.1340

56,836

56,834.8

Jul-16

19

0.1149

48,722

48,720.5

Aug-16

20

0.0726

30,803

30,802.3

Sep-16

21

0.0704

29,862

29,860.8

Oct-16

22

0.0726

30,803

30,802.3

Nov-16

23

0.1322

56,080

56,079.0

Dec-16

24

0.0592

25,112

25,111.5

Jan-17

25

0.1496

69,321

69,320.4

Feb-17

26

0.0298

13,831

13,829.8

Mar-17

27

0.0790

36,605

36,604.0

Apr-17

28

0.1580

73,229

73,228.3

May-17

29

0.0718

33,266

33,265.0

Jun-17

30

0.0774

35,856

35,854.7

Jul-17

31

0.0284

13,148

13,146.7

Aug-17

32

0.0478

22,159

22,158.1

Sep-17

33

0.0480

22,235

22,234.3

Oct-17

34

0.1441

66,768

66,766.9

Nov-17

35

0.1236

57,259

57,258.2

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

0.0424 0.0241 0.1408 0.0566 0.1548 0.0504 0.1527 0.0805 0.0791 0.1371 0.0791 0.0704 0.1149

19,667 12,021 70,179 28,228 77,120 25,118 76,083 40,124 39,413 68,310 39,413 35,081 57,245

19,665.7 12,020.3 70,178.4 28,227.2 77,118.7 25,116.6 76,081.8 40,123.1 39,411.9 68,308.5 39,411.9 35,080.3 57,244.4

Tendencia (Tt)

Estacionalidad (Ct)

Estacionalidad Normalizada

Ft

0.696734582857264 0.787786494504865 0.898030227320319 1.5936173109683 0.616472342126339 1.27513044595348 0.816674558624646 0.890117283002944 1.10123713930307 1.13335548479606 1.27586930334946 (272.50)

0.914974827193261

-288.0

1.0

1.0

13,470.0

-296.9

1.0

1.0

10,811.5

-259.9

1.0

1.0

30,705.3

-239.7

1.0

1.0

71,980.7

-287.7

1.0

1.0

10,658.9

-278.3

1.0

1.0

28,137.8

-277.9

1.0

1.0

17,797.1

-239.3

1.0

1.0

38,589.6

-241.8

1.0

1.0

45,620.4

-262.5

1.0

1.0

32,927.4

-239.5

1.0

1.0

53,297.1

-265.0

1.0

1.0

24,331.5

-297.9

1.0

1.0

6,997.5

-279.9

1.0

1.0

16,853.2

-236.4

1.0

1.0

41,551.4

-225.9

1.0

1.0

47,198.5

-282.9

1.0

1.0

13,520.9

-214.3

1.0

1.0

52,978.0

-228.3

1.0

1.0

44,383.1

-259.6

1.0

1.0

25,610.9

-260.8

1.0

1.0

24,384.7

-258.6

1.0

1.0

25,112.5

-213.5

1.0

1.0

51,168.2

-267.9

1.0

1.0

18,682.9

-189.2

1.0

1.0

64,592.8

-287.0

1.0

1.0

6,368.2

-246.2

1.0

1.0

29,955.4

-181.1

1.0

1.0

68,157.4

-251.4

1.0

1.0

25,975.7

-246.4

1.0

1.0

28,463.5

-286.1

1.0

1.0

4,279.1

-269.6

1.0

1.0

13,530.2

-269.0

1.0

1.0

13,357.0

-189.8

1.0

1.0

60,312.6

-206.3

1.0

1.0

50,037.0

-272.4 -285.4 -182.1 -255.9 -169.1 -260.7 -170.1 -233.4 -234.2 -182.8 -233.5 -240.7 -201.1

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

9,860.4 1,460.3 63,260.5 18,245.7 70,354.3 14,428.6 68,935.2 30,088.2 29,105.6 60,085.1 28,670.1 23,764.7 47,590.0 57,247.6 57,243.6 57,244.9 57,243.6 57,245.1 57,243.6 57,244.3 57,244.3 57,243.7 57,244.3 57,244.5 57,243.8

error

error^2

ABS(et/Dt)

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE

-6,151.8

37,844,658.0

0.3

DICIEMBRE

-3,507.0

12,299,035.9

0.2

PROM

-4,267.1

18,207,969.9

0.1

25,852.2

668,334,040.1

0.6

T0

-8,070.4

65,131,287.4

0.4

S0

4,399.8

19,358,603.0

0.2

-5,940.9

35,293,919.5

0.3

-6,679.2

44,611,267.9

0.1

Fecha

2,016.3

4,065,554.8

0.0

2015

1,248.4

1,558,622.0

0.0

2016

8,888.0

78,996,162.4

0.2

2017

-5,441.5

29,609,689.8

0.2

2018

-3,873.7

15,005,425.4

0.4

-3,918.9

15,357,682.1

0.2

AÑO

-3,547.1

12,582,177.8

0.1

2015

-3,614.9

13,067,221.0

0.1

2016

-4,809.9

23,135,428.7

0.3

2017

-3,857.8

14,882,632.9

0.1

2018

-4,338.4

18,822,017.6

0.1

-5,192.4

26,960,996.0

0.2

-5,477.1

29,998,713.6

0.2

Alfa

-5,690.9

32,385,856.6

0.2

1

-4,911.8

24,125,793.5

0.1

-6,429.6

41,339,602.4

0.3

-4,728.6

22,359,273.8

0.1

-7,462.6

55,689,915.6

0.5

023-Consumo aparent

90,000

80,000

90,000

-6,649.6

44,216,827.2

0.2

-5,071.9

25,724,036.6

0.1

-7,290.4

53,149,475.1

0.2

-7,392.1

54,643,352.5

0.2

-8,868.7

78,653,158.9

0.7

-8,628.9

74,457,306.9

0.4

-8,878.3

78,824,175.5

0.4

-6,455.3

41,670,908.8

0.1

-7,222.3

52,161,220.9

0.1

-9,806.4 -10,561.0 -6,918.9 -9,982.6 -6,765.4 -10,689.0 -7,147.6 -10,035.8 -10,307.3 -8,224.4 -10,742.8 -11,316.5 -9,655.4

96,164,722.0 111,533,769.5 47,871,599.0 99,651,377.2 45,770,781.0 114,253,792.9 51,088,297.4 100,717,820.2 106,240,772.8 67,641,387.2 115,406,973.2 128,063,695.4 93,227,037.1

0.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE RES 2015

2016

2017

2018

19,621.83

10,871.17

69,321.39

12,021.28

14,318.47

20,772.12

13,830.76

70,179.43

34,972.36

45,098.54

36,604.98

28,228.21

46,128.55

50,813.40

73,229.30

77,119.67

18,729.28

18,330.83

33,266.04

25,117.55

23,738.00

56,835.84

35,855.66

76,082.76

23,738.00

48,721.50

13,147.72

40,124.06

45,268.76

30,803.34

22,159.09

39,412.89

43,604.07

29,861.77

22,235.33

68,309.53

31,678.94

30,803.34

66,767.86

39,412.89

44,409.15

56,080.05

57,259.23

35,081.27

29,772.99

25,112.49

19,666.73

57,245.43

31,331.70

35,342.03

38,612.01

47,361.25

PROM TOTAL

35,095.25

(272.50) 28,691.55 023-Consumo aparente per cápita anual (origen formal) Carne de res (kg/hab) Carne de pollo (kg/hab) Carne de cerdo (kg/hab) 19.1

30.4

7.8

18.6

31.5

8.7

18.1

32.8

9.4

18.2

33.8

10.0

POBLACION

ME

48,202,617

-5,294.1

48,747,632 49,291,925

MAPE

49,834,727

0.2

Beta

Gama

0.001767389413924

1

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 90,000

80,000

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 3

1

13

25

37

2

14

26

38

3

15

27

39

4

16

28

40

5

17

29

41

6

18

30

42

7

19

31

43

8

20

32

44

9

21

33

45

10

22

34

46

11

23

35

47

12

24

36

48

FACTORES ESTACIONALES

Promedios

0.47282723399468 0.28436988 1.98293396 0.37935153 0.779870650895039 0.347312617628625 0.54726156 0.39873619 2.23383803 0.881787098490692 0.853943557840006 1.19675628 1.06366536 0.90637634 1.13389637912547

1.0051853821173

1.3582302 2.14487605 2.49808381 1.78377161140149

0.46349325067971 0.49357384 0.591432461705685 1.54166703

0.9821972

0.820861 0.690031324039142

1.0672437 2.50878528 1.42728211765189

0.595475313886144 1.33140736 0.39454207 1.33506388 0.914122156807736 1.14339709346151 0.84807496 0.67044101 1.32339992 0.99632824600389 1.10898316589511 0.82836629 0.67834036 2.31486793 1.23263943795656 0.811313855038605 0.86099398 2.05398376 1.14533400953972

1.3480693 1.26859022269092

1.5795419 1.77636014 1.21120049

1.4281091373126

0.773294894315218 0.71278535 0.61532528 1.99520189 1.02415185293302 13.4318692383003

METODO WINTERS DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

METODO WINTERS DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Normalizacion 0.696734582857264 0.787786494504865 0.898030227320319 1.5936173109683 0.616472342126339 1.27513044595348 0.816674558624646 0.890117283002944 1.10123713930307 1.13335548479606 1.27586930334946 0.914974827193261 12

Fecha

N Periodo

Proporción por demanda

Demanda consumo Kg/Hab

Nivel medio (st)

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 Jan-15

0 1

115,013.61 0.0347

50,881

50,879.8

Feb-15

2

0.0463

67,841

67,839.9

Mar-15

3

0.0602

88,193

88,192.0

Apr-15

4

0.0694

101,761

101,760.1

May-15

5

0.0810

118,721

118,720.3

Jun-15

6

0.0880

128,897

128,896.4

Jul-15

7

0.0926

135,681

135,680.4

Aug-15

8

0.0995

145,858

145,856.5

Sep-15

9

0.0972

142,466

142,464.4

Oct-15

10

0.1088

159,426

159,424.6

Nov-15

11

0.1157

169,602

169,600.6

Dec-15

12

0.1065

156,034

156,032.5

Jan-16

13

0.0713

109,438

109,436.9

Feb-16

14

0.0772

118,558

118,556.7

Mar-16

15

0.0846

129,957

129,956.5

Apr-16

16

0.0861

132,237

132,236.5

May-16

17

0.0817

125,398

125,396.6

Jun-16

18

0.0861

132,237

132,236.5

Jul-16

19

0.0891

136,797

136,796.4

Aug-16

20

0.0757

116,278

116,276.8

Sep-16

21

0.0802

123,118

123,116.6

Oct-16

22

0.0854

131,097

131,096.5

Nov-16

23

0.0891

136,797

136,796.4

Dec-16

24

0.0935

143,637

143,636.2

Jan-17

25

0.0729

117,791

117,789.9

Feb-17

26

0.0776

125,390

125,389.3

Mar-17

27

0.0752

121,591

121,589.6

Apr-17

28

0.0799

129,190

129,189.0

May-17

29

0.0823

132,990

132,988.7

Jun-17

30

0.0834

134,890

134,888.6

Jul-17

31

0.0858

138,689

138,688.3

Aug-17

32

0.0846

136,789

136,788.4

Sep-17

33

0.0893

144,389

144,387.8

Oct-17

34

0.0905

146,289

146,287.7

Nov-17

35

0.0905

146,289

146,287.7

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

0.0881 0.0705 0.0723 0.0796 0.0814 0.0832 0.0814 0.0850 0.0850 0.0868 0.0895 0.0904 0.0949

142,489 118,792 121,838 134,022 137,068 140,114 137,068 143,160 143,160 146,206 150,775 152,298 159,913

142,488.0 118,791.3 121,837.2 134,021.1 137,067.0 140,113.0 137,067.0 143,158.9 143,158.9 146,204.9 150,773.8 152,296.8 159,911.7

Tendencia (Tt)

Estacionalidad (Ct)

Estacionalidad Normalizada

Ft

0.743975035125575 0.813402073118808 0.890066781307357 0.942384371519806 0.977062218185105 1.0091637342144 1.05385421517686 1.03477123480525 1.06735865619238 1.13044492989071 1.1675716715253 (564.06)

1.16994507893843

-676.4

1.0

1.0

37,350.1

-645.2

1.0

1.0

54,131.4

-608.1

1.0

1.0

76,873.0

-583.1

1.0

1.0

93,699.2

-552.1

1.0

1.0

113,300.1

-533.1

1.0

1.0

126,849.6

-520.2

1.0

1.0

139,150.0

-501.3

1.0

1.0

146,778.5

-506.4

1.0

1.0

147,196.2

-475.5

1.0

1.0

174,845.3

-456.7

1.0

1.0

192,155.5

-479.9

1.0

1.0

175,812.5

-561.4

1.0

1.0

102,139.7

-544.3

1.0

1.0

110,937.5

-523.1

1.0

1.0

122,109.5

-518.2

1.0

1.0

123,945.5

-529.4

1.0

1.0

116,397.3

-516.3

1.0

1.0

122,942.2

-507.4

1.0

1.0

127,156.3

-542.7

1.0

1.0

105,421.8

-529.7

1.0

1.0

111,993.0

-514.6

1.0

1.0

119,774.0

-503.7

1.0

1.0

125,211.8

-490.7

1.0

1.0

131,859.6

-535.5

1.0

1.0

104,402.5

-521.1

1.0

1.0

111,840.2

-526.9

1.0

1.0

107,362.8

-512.6

1.0

1.0

114,837.5

-504.9

1.0

1.0

118,345.7

-500.7

1.0

1.0

119,868.1

-493.1

1.0

1.0

123,402.7

-495.6

1.0

1.0

120,930.3

-481.3

1.0

1.0

128,506.2

-477.1

1.0

1.0

130,067.9

-476.2

1.0

1.0

129,620.3

-482.1 -523.1 -516.8 -494.4 -488.1 -481.9 -486.4 -474.8 -473.9 -467.7 -458.8 -455.3 -441.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

125,132.8 99,436.2 102,198.7 114,741.2 117,543.0 120,356.9 116,638.8 122,744.2 122,306.4 125,158.3 129,669.0 130,897.8 138,742.0 159,911.9 159,911.9 159,911.7 159,911.7 159,911.7 159,911.7 159,911.7 159,911.7 159,911.6 159,911.6 159,911.6 159,911.6

error

error^2

ABS(et/Dt)

MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE

-13,530.5

183,073,794.2

0.3

DICIEMBRE

-13,709.3

187,944,429.5

0.2

PROM

-11,320.0

128,141,490.0

0.1

-8,061.8

64,993,386.5

0.1

T0

-5,421.2

29,389,381.3

0.0

S0

-2,047.8

4,193,534.9

0.0

3,468.6

12,030,922.6

0.0

920.9

848,142.9

0.0

Fecha

4,730.7

22,379,675.9

0.0

2015

15,419.6

237,763,588.6

0.1

2016

22,553.7

508,670,589.1

0.1

2017

19,778.9

391,203,285.5

0.1

2018

-7,298.2

53,263,003.1

0.1

-7,620.2

58,067,607.3

0.1

AÑO

-7,848.0

61,591,336.1

0.1

2015

-8,292.0

68,757,155.4

0.1

2016

-9,000.2

81,004,427.8

0.1

2017

-9,295.2

86,401,208.7

0.1

2018

-9,641.1

92,951,072.3

0.1

-10,855.9

117,850,941.2

0.1

-11,124.6

123,757,041.5

0.1

Alfa

-11,323.5

128,221,400.5

0.1

1

-11,585.6

134,225,028.3

0.1

-11,777.7

138,713,203.0

0.1

-13,388.4

179,248,398.6

0.1

-13,550.1

183,605,769.6

0.1

023-Consumo aparent

250,000

250,000

-14,227.8

202,429,655.8

0.1

-14,352.6

205,996,098.9

0.1

-14,644.0

214,448,176.0

0.1

-15,021.5

225,646,237.7

0.1

-15,286.6

233,680,953.5

0.1

-15,859.1

251,511,490.2

0.1

-15,882.6

252,257,233.9

0.1

-16,220.8

263,115,958.9

0.1

-16,668.4

277,836,700.2

0.1

-17,356.1 -19,356.1 -19,639.6 -19,280.9 -19,525.0 -19,757.1 -20,429.3 -20,415.7 -20,853.6 -21,047.6 -21,105.8 -21,400.0 -21,170.7

301,235,823.1 374,658,579.0 385,712,356.2 371,753,109.4 381,226,753.7 390,341,734.9 417,355,079.1 416,802,712.6 434,871,604.0 443,001,503.1 445,456,385.9 457,960,713.5 448,196,884.2

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

PROPORCION POR DEMANDA DE RES 2015

2016

2017

2018

50,880.54

109,437.89

117,790.90

118,792.29

67,840.72

118,557.72

125,390.32

121,838.25

88,192.94

129,957.50

121,590.61

134,022.07

101,761.08

132,237.45

129,190.02

137,068.03

118,721.26

125,397.58

132,989.73

140,113.98

128,897.37

132,237.45

134,889.58

137,068.03

135,681.44

136,797.36

138,689.29

143,159.94

145,857.55

116,277.76

136,789.44

143,159.94

142,465.51

123,117.63

144,388.85

146,205.90

159,425.69

131,097.47

146,288.70

150,774.83

169,601.80

136,797.36

146,288.70

152,297.81

156,033.66

143,637.23

142,489.00

159,912.70

122,113.30

127,962.53

134,731.26

140,367.81

PROM TOTAL

128,269.03

(564.06) 115,013.61 023-Consumo aparente per cápita anual (origen formal) Carne de res (kg/hab) Carne de pollo (kg/hab) Carne de cerdo (kg/hab) 19.1

30.4

7.8

18.6

31.5

8.7

18.1

32.8

9.4

18.2

33.8

10.0

POBLACION

ME

48,202,617

-11,027.5

48,747,632 49,291,925

MAPE

49,834,727

0.1

Beta

Gama

0.001767389413924

1

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 250,000

PRONOSTICO METODO WINTERS 250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 3

1

13

25

37

2

14

26

38

3

15

27

39

4

16

28

40

5

17

29

41

6

18

30

42

7

19

31

43

8

20

32

44

9

21

33

45

10

22

34

46

11

23

35

47

12

24

36

48

FACTORES ESTACIONALES 0.35951765307279 0.81212051

Promedios

0.9203349 0.97998667 0.767989934129008

0.481275043188366 0.88349536 0.98404821 1.00981346 0.83965801950528 0.628171217219362 0.97253478 0.95847142 1.11601219 0.918797401086553 0.727736720415404 0.99379173 1.02292417 1.14676241 0.972803759854042 0.852464878424104 0.94640053 1.05773426 1.17780425 0.929297112532216

1.0086009787375

1.0022892 1.07767949 1.15768901 1.04173870516218

0.982201753366983 1.04130276 1.11305261 1.21492992 1.08787175789931 1.06019593073843 0.88892406 1.10279754 1.22077365 1.06817279469941 1.03980339711523 0.94528994 1.16938179 1.25277332 1.10181211110512 1.16839966678417 1.01093692 1.19020553 1.29819691

1.1669347575577

1.24813803415135 1.05949917

1.1956928 1.31770968 1.20525991971527

1.15307345687525 1.11735548

1.1700301 1.39038072 1.20770993875732 12.3873500782087

METODO WINTERS DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

METODO WINTERS DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Normalizacion 0.743975035125575 0.813402073118808 0.890066781307357 0.942384371519806 0.977062218185105 1.0091637342144 1.05385421517686 1.03477123480525 1.06735865619238 1.13044492989071 1.1675716715253 1.16994507893843 12