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• meliza martinez

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SUPUESTOS 1. Se van a tomar que cada mes tiene 4 semanas en las cuales se van a laborar, para un total de 48 semanas en el año. 2. La demanda para el mes se distribuye en partes iguales para cada semana. 3. Lo anterior debido a que la investigcaión realizada por la tesis, se puede observar que el Lead Team de alistamiento toma 6

El boom de materiales tanto para las alas de pollo como para las pechugas se divide en dos partes: 1. Mezcla para marinar la carne. 2. Empaquetado.

CANTIDAD LEAD TIME TAMAÑO LOTE

PECHUGA DE POLLO

MEZCLA PARA MARINAR AJO

ACEITE

SAL

EMPAQUETADO PIMIENTA

BANDEJA

VINIPEL

ETIQUETA

2 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Res

Cerdo

Mes

Proporción por demanda

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

8.77% 15.05% 6.74% 12.17% 7.75% 8.62% 8.13% 7.63% 7.14% 6.17% 6.16% 5.67% 12.57% 11.15% 2.48% 6.37% 17.35% 3.54% 16.11% 3.54% 6.37% 9.73% 5.13% 5.66% 4.47% 5.92% 2.16% 9.81% 14.43% 10.25% 13.42% 14.14% 5.05% 9.24% 4.33% 6.78% 3.05% 9.62% 5.60% 11.45%

0.0877 0.1505 0.0674 0.1217 0.0775 0.0862 0.0813 0.0763 0.0714 0.0665 0.0616 0.0567

Pollo

Mes

Proporción por demanda

Mes

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

5.22% 3.81% 9.30% 12.27% 4.98% 6.31% 6.31% 12.04% 11.60% 8.43% 11.81% 7.92% 2.56% 4.90% 10.63% 11.98% 4.32% 13.40% 11.49% 7.26% 7.04% 7.26% 13.22% 5.92% 14.96% 2.98% 7.90% 15.80% 7.18% 7.74% 2.84% 4.78% 4.80% 14.41% 12.36% 4.24% 1.24% 12.91% 4.49% 14.31%

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

11.94% 11.08% 1.95% 9.99% 11.21% 12.06% 3.41% 8.65%

May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

3.87% 14.10% 6.88% 6.74% 12.54% 6.74% 5.87% 10.32%

May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Proporción por demanda 3.47% 4.63% 6.02% 6.94% 8.10% 8.80% 9.26% 9.95% 9.72% 10.88% 11.57% 10.65% 7.13% 7.72% 8.46% 8.61% 8.17% 8.61% 8.91% 7.57% 8.02% 8.54% 8.91% 9.35% 7.29% 7.76% 7.52% 7.99% 8.23% 8.34% 8.58% 8.46% 8.93% 9.05% 9.05% 8.81% 7.05% 7.23% 7.96% 8.14%

0.0048

8.32% 8.14% 8.50% 8.50% 8.68% 8.95% 9.04% 9.49%

PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS CARNE AÑO 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mes Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

Colombia 100% 942,285 910,052 905,025 935,025 Proporción por PERIODO demanda 8.77% 15.05% 6.74% 12.17% 7.75% 8.62% 8.13% 7.63% 7.14% 6.17% 6.16% 5.67% 12.57% 11.15% 2.48% 6.37% 17.35% 3.54% 16.11% 3.54% 6.37% 9.73% 5.13% 5.66% 4.47% 5.92% 2.16% 9.81% 14.43% 10.25% 13.42% 14.14% 5.05%

D. Meta 35% 329,799.750 318,518.200 316,758.750 327,258.750

La Granja de Juan 15% 49,469.963 47,777.730 47,513.813 49,088.813

PRODUCCIÓN CARNE

PRODUCCIÓN CARN 9000

1 4339.7503605688 2 7447.3710948642 3 3331.8733656621 4 6019.5453520798 5 3835.8118631155 6 4264.1595859508 7 4020.5893121817 8 3777.0190384126 9 3533.4487646435 10 3052.4226708744 11 3046.3082171053 12 2802.7379433362 13 6003.9271327434 14 5327.428300885 15 1183.8729557522 16 3044.2447433628 17 8287.1106902655 18 1691.247079646 19 7695.1742123894 20 1691.247079646 21 3044.2447433628 22 4650.9294690266 23 2452.3082654867 24 2705.9953274336 25 2125.4375 26 2811.0625 27 1028.4375 28 4662.25 29 6856.25 30 4867.9375 31 6376.3125 32 6719.125 33 2399.6875

8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

1

3

5

7

9

1

1

1

3

1

5

1

7

1

9

2

1

2

3

2

5

2

7

29

3

1

Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

9.24% 4.33% 6.78% 3.05% 9.62% 5.60% 11.45% 11.94% 11.08% 1.95% 9.99% 11.21% 12.06% 3.41% 8.65%

34 4388 35 2056.875 36 3222.4375 37 1494.787225944 38 4723.527633983 39 2750.4084957369 40 5620.3999695493 41 5859.5659257004 42 5441.0255024361 43 956.66382460414 44 4902.9021010962 45 5500.8169914738 46 5919.3574147381 47 1674.1616930573 48 4245.1957216809

PRODUCCIÓN EN TONE

ranja de Juan 15% 49,469.963 47,777.730 47,513.813 49,088.813

AÑO 2015 2016 2017 2018

PRODUCCIÓN CARNE

1

3

1

5

1

7

1

9

2

1

2

3

2

5

2

7

29

3

1

3

3

Mes

3

5

3

7

3

9

4

1

4

3

4

5

4

7

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

Colombia 100% 329,000.000 414,354.872 453,485.710 513,297.688 Proporción por PERIODO demanda 5.22% 3.81% 9.30% 12.27% 4.98% 6.31% 6.31% 12.04% 11.60% 8.43% 11.81% 7.92% 2.56% 4.90% 10.63% 11.98% 4.32% 13.40% 11.49% 7.26% 7.04% 7.26% 13.22% 5.92% 14.96% 2.98% 7.90% 15.80% 7.18% 7.74% 2.84% 4.78% 4.80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

14.41% 12.36% 4.24% 1.24% 12.91% 4.49% 14.31% 3.87% 14.10% 6.88% 6.74% 12.54% 6.74% 5.87% 10.32%

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS CERDO D. Meta 35% 115,150 145,024 158,720 179,654

La Granja de Juan 15% 17,273 21,754 23,808 26,948

PRODUCCIÓN CERDO 901.424900354 657.788810721 1606.62664666 2119.14082634 860.421054624 1090.52138699 1090.52138699 2079.64215085 2003.16631829 1455.32709897 2040.15139298 1367.76802623 557.615961671 1065.46648975 2313.24389822 2606.37705309 940.245146328 2915.28674157 2499.07704528 1579.99913038 1531.70276811 1579.99913038 2876.51963108 1288.09778415 3561.93926724 710.665805653 1880.87302974 3762.73935578 1709.30842405 1842.37075059 675.569239093 1138.6000475 1142.5174446

PRODUCCIÓN CERDO 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

1

3

5

7

9

1

1

1

3

1

5

1

7

1

9

2

1

2

3

2

5

2

7

2

9

3

1

3

3

3

5

3

7

3

9

4

1

4

3

4

5

4

7

3430.73146285 2942.14966823 1010.53527967 334.75759347 3479.65957699 1211.14734924 3854.95301919 1042.93852877 3798.88228643 1854.41535643 1815.95868372 3378.54481839 1815.95868372 1581.72632028 2780.25343926

PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS POLLO AÑO 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mes

4

1

4

3

4

5

4

7

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

Colombia 100% 1,424,388 1,478,924 1,563,569 1,629,648 Proporción por PERIODO demanda 3.47% 4.63% 6.02% 6.94% 8.10% 8.80% 9.26% 9.95% 9.72% 10.88% 11.57% 10.65% 7.13% 7.72% 8.46% 8.61% 8.17% 8.61% 8.91% 7.57% 8.02% 8.54% 8.91% 9.35% 7.29% 7.76% 7.52% 7.99% 8.23% 8.34% 8.58% 8.46% 8.93%

D. Meta 35% 498,536 517,623 547,249 570,377

La Granja de Juan 15% 74,780 77,644 82,087 85,557

PRODUCCIÓN POLLO 1 2596.540625 2 3462.05416667 3 4500.67041667 4 5193.08125 5 6058.59479167 6 6577.90291667 7 6924.10833333 8 7443.41645833 9 7270.31375 10 8135.82729167 11 8655.13541667 12 7962.72458333 13 5533.61318486 14 5994.74761693 15 6571.16565702 16 6686.44926503 17 6340.59844098 18 6686.44926503 19 6917.01648107 20 5879.46400891 21 6225.31483296 22 6628.80746102 23 6917.01648107 24 7262.86730512 25 5980.51362515 26 6366.35321387 27 6173.43341951 28 6559.27300823 29 6752.19280259 30 6848.65269976 31 7041.57249412 32 6945.11259694 33 7330.95218566

PRODUCCIÓN 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

9.05% 9.05% 8.81% 7.05% 7.23% 7.96% 8.14% 8.32% 8.14% 8.50% 8.50% 8.68% 8.95% 9.04% 9.49%

34 7427.41208284 35 7427.41208284 36 7234.49228848 37 6033.82329114 38 6188.53670886 39 6807.39037975 40 6962.10379747 41 7116.81721519 42 6962.10379747 43 7271.53063291 44 7271.53063291 45 7426.24405063 46 7658.31417722 47 7735.67088608 48 8122.45443038

ranja de Juan 15% 74,780 77,644 82,087 85,557

11

PRODUCCIÓN POLLO

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

Periodo t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Produccion mensual

4,339.75 7,447.37 3,331.87 6,019.55 3,835.81 4,264.16 4,020.59 3,777.02 3,533.45 3,052.42 3,046.31 2,802.74 6,003.93 5,327.43 1,183.87 3,044.24 8,287.11 1,691.25 7,695.17 1,691.25 3,044.24 4,650.93 2,452.31 2,706.00 2,125.44 2,811.06 1,028.44 4,662.25 6,856.25 4,867.94 6,376.31 6,719.13 2,399.69 4,388.00 2,056.88 3,222.44 1,494.79

P R O M E D I O M O V I L S I M P L

Pronostico N=3 Movil simple

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

5,039.66 5,599.60 4,395.74 4,706.51 4,040.19 4,020.59 3,777.02 3,454.30 3,210.73 2,967.16 3,950.99 4,711.36 4,171.74 3,185.18 4,171.74 4,340.87 5,891.18 3,692.56 4,143.56 3,128.81 3,382.49 3,269.74 2,427.91 2,547.50 1,988.31 2,833.92 4,182.31 5,462.15 6,033.50 5,987.79 5,165.04 4,502.27 2,948.19 3,222.44

979.88 -1,763.78 -131.58 -685.92 -263.17 -487.14 -724.60 -407.99 -407.99 3,036.77 1,376.44 -3,527.49 -1,127.50 5,101.93 -2,480.50 3,354.31 -4,199.93 -648.31 507.37 -676.50 -676.50 -1,144.31 383.15 -1,519.06 2,673.94 4,022.33 685.63 914.17 685.63 -3,588.10 -777.04 -2,445.40 274.25 -1,727.65

979.88 1,763.78 131.58 685.92 263.17 487.14 724.60 407.99 407.99 3,036.77 1,376.44 3,527.49 1,127.50 5,101.93 2,480.50 3,354.31 4,199.93 648.31 507.37 676.50 676.50 1,144.31 383.15 1,519.06 2,673.94 4,022.33 685.63 914.17 685.63 3,588.10 777.04 2,445.40 274.25 1,727.65

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

4,723.53 2,750.41 5,620.40 5,859.57 5,441.03 956.66 4,902.90 5,500.82 5,919.36 1,674.16 4,245.20

193,851.39 190,467.19

I M P L E N = 3

2,258.03 3,146.92 2,989.57 4,364.78 4,743.46 5,640.33 4,085.75 3,766.86 3,786.79 5,441.03 4,364.78 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 3,946.24 228,496.21 189,788.72

2,465.49 -396.51 2,630.83 1,494.79 697.57 -4,683.67 817.15 1,733.95 2,132.56 -3,766.86 -119.58

2,465.49 396.51 2,630.83 1,494.79 697.57 4,683.67 817.15 1,733.95 2,132.56 3,766.86 119.58

-2,408.95

74,345.20

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

960,165.62 3,110,936.61 17,314.33 470,481.15 69,257.33 237,305.91 525,039.90 166,454.70 166,454.70 9,221,977.23 1,894,579.37 12,443,196.31 1,271,251.86 26,029,676.36 6,152,859.00 11,251,373.49 17,639,414.09 420,307.65 257,428.50 457,650.67 457,650.67 1,309,438.18 146,803.00 2,307,546.15 7,149,941.75 16,179,165.44 470,081.64 835,700.69 470,081.64 12,874,491.51 603,793.75 5,979,960.78 75,213.06 2,984,775.47

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

0.16 0.46 0.03 0.17 0.07 0.14 0.24 0.13 0.15 0.51 0.26 2.98 0.37 0.62 1.47 0.44 2.48 0.21 0.11 0.28 0.25 0.54 0.14 1.48 0.57 0.59 0.14 0.14 0.10 1.50 0.18 1.19 0.09 1.16

Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 PROMEDIO

Error de pronóstico

MOVIL PONDERAD O

W1 0.1

W2 0.4

W3 0.5

5078.86015683362 5087.25913179117 4658.91140895586 4268.35907342954 4099.53967678268 3923.16120267403 3679.59092890493 3317.29274513583 3097.46805336673 2925.13452559763 4427.68956541667 5345.55879787344 3323.30051150442 2528.4143840708 5479.6405380531 4464.89229026549 5352.79700707965 4092.81793274336 2968.13862477876 3712.28733982301 3390.95039469026 2799.01391681416 2390.34770752212 2526.30578274336 1851.1875 3023.60625 5395.86875 5642.69375 5820.95625 6396.88125 4525.125 3825.7875 3023.60625 2872.76875

-39.20 512.34 -263.17 438.15 -59.35 97.43 97.43 137.00 113.26 42.02 -476.69846769 -634.19433889 848.442284956 656.767615929 -1307.8977416 -124.02478584 538.380320354 -400.26180885 1175.41672035 -583.48024248 -8.4562353982 470.730437168 37.565990118 21.1926597345 137.125 -189.68958333 -1213.55625 -180.54791667 212.54375 -409.08958333 639.916666667 676.483333333 -75.41875 349.66875

6,078,662.60 157,219.35 6,921,242.90 2,234,388.85 486,600.24 21,936,733.21 667,734.69 3,006,593.64 4,547,825.41 14,189,262.96 14,300.09

0.52 0.14 0.47 0.26 0.13 4.90 0.17 0.32 0.36 2.25 0.03

204,848,332.49

28.85

2242.05611297199 3281.92245736906 3414.09402405603 4382.71614646772 5452.98380024361 5626.37911845311 3240.69870584653 3378.21913063337 4807.23571863581 5650.29571406821 3754.90551157125 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 221,158.10

15.9771290093 -135.00500406 -424.51957217 -17.937446711 -709.52566991 13.9513474421 845.053045067 388.644678745 -1020.4414129 -209.27021163 609.873188185

593.63

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

39.20 512.34 263.17 438.15 59.35 97.43 97.43 137.00 113.26 42.02 476.698467688 634.194338885 848.442284956 656.767615929 1307.89774159 124.024785841 538.380320354 400.26180885 1175.41672035 583.480242478 8.45623539823 470.730437168 37.565990118 21.1926597345 137.125 189.689583333 1213.55625 180.547916667 212.54375 409.089583333 639.916666667 676.483333333 75.41875 349.66875

1,536.26 262,489.69 69,257.33 191,972.38 3,522.75 9,492.24 9,492.24 18,770.12 12,827.49 1,765.83 227241.429096 402202.459474 719854.310901 431343.701333 1710596.50246 15382.1475028 289853.369344 160209.515624 1381604.46649 340449.193362 71.5079171103 221587.144477 1411.20361355 449.128826623 18803.265625 35982.1380252 1472718.77191 32597.5502127 45174.8456641 167354.287192 409493.340278 457629.700278 5687.98785156 122268.234727

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25 SUAVIZACIÓ N EXPONENCIA L SIMPLE 193,851.00 146473.187590142 111716.733466323 84620.5184411575 α 64970.2751688881 49686.659342445 0.25 38331.0344033214 29753.4231305365 23259.3221075055 18327.85377179 14508.9959965611 11643.3240516971 9433.17752460689 8575.864926641 7763.75577020199 6118.78506658955 5350.14998578287 6084.39016190352 4986.10439133915 5663.3718466017 4670.34065486278 4263.8166769878 4360.59487499748 3883.52322261979 3589.14124882325 3223.21531161744 3120.17710871308 2597.24220653481 3113.49415490111 4049.18311617583 4253.87171213187 4784.4819090989 5268.14268182418 4551.02888636813 4510.2716647761 3896.92249858207 3728.30124893656

15.9771290093 135.00500406 424.519572168 17.9374467113 709.525669915 13.9513474421 845.053045067 388.644678745 1020.44141291 209.270211632 609.873188185

255.268651381 18226.3511213 180216.867154 321.751994522 503426.676268 194.640095451 714114.648977 151044.686317 1041300.67718 43794.0214766 371945.305667

0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

17,557.09

12,275,933.42

0.39

3169.92274318841 3558.32396588704 3356.34509834951 3922.35881614946 4406.66059353719 4665.25182076191 3738.10482172246 4029.3041415659 4397.18235404288 4777.72611921669 4001.83501267683 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 4,062.68 1,001,756.79

DEM 250000

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

200000 150000 100000

marzo

enero

0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico N Pronostico m Suavizacion

abril

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

marzo

DEM

febrero

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

abril

DEMA

marzo

43.67 18.67 32.53 13.06 15.94 10.65 8.53 6.88 5.58 5.00 3.76 3.15 0.57 0.61 5.56 1.01 0.35 2.60 0.35 2.35 0.53 0.08 0.78 0.44 0.69 0.15 2.03 0.44 0.55 0.17 0.33 0.29 1.20 0.04 1.19 0.21 1.49

febrero

35,914,513,739.90 19,328,177,652.18 11,747,277,899.04 6,178,112,970.55 3,737,422,603.68 2,063,203,484.13 1,177,206,642.35 674,773,569.56 389,110,079.14 233,338,795.32 131,393,211.13 78,155,962.74 11,759,758.25 10,552,340.51 43,294,857.85 9,452,798.20 8,625,738.18 19,299,706.14 7,339,059.30 15,777,775.16 2,644,187.91 149,856.31 3,641,557.78 1,386,571.94 2,142,428.66 169,869.94 4,375,374.59 4,264,257.19 14,008,221.32 670,358.74 4,504,754.90 3,742,843.89 8,228,035.13 26,578.42 6,019,155.19 454,930.01 4,988,584.89

enero

189,511.25 139,025.82 108,384.86 78,600.97 61,134.46 45,422.50 34,310.45 25,976.40 19,725.87 15,275.43 11,462.69 8,840.59 3,429.25 3,248.44 6,579.88 3,074.54 2,936.96 4,393.14 2,709.07 3,972.12 1,626.10 387.11 1,908.29 1,177.53 1,463.70 412.15 2,091.74 2,065.01 3,742.76 818.75 2,122.44 1,934.64 2,868.46 163.03 2,453.40 674.48 2,233.51

enero

-189,511.25 -139,025.82 -108,384.86 -78,600.97 -61,134.46 -45,422.50 -34,310.45 -25,976.40 -19,725.87 -15,275.43 -11,462.69 -8,840.59 -3,429.25 -3,248.44 -6,579.88 -3,074.54 2,936.96 -4,393.14 2,709.07 -3,972.12 -1,626.10 387.11 -1,908.29 -1,177.53 -1,463.70 -412.15 -2,091.74 2,065.01 3,742.76 818.75 2,122.44 1,934.64 -2,868.46 -163.03 -2,453.40 -674.48 -2,233.51

febrero

50000

Proporción producción

1,553.60 -807.92 2,264.05 1,937.21 1,034.36 -3,708.59 1,164.80 1,471.51 1,522.18 -3,103.56 243.36

1,553.60 807.92 2,264.05 1,937.21 1,034.36 3,708.59 1,164.80 1,471.51 1,522.18 3,103.56 243.36

2,413,688.16 652,727.41 5,125,944.46 3,752,771.39 1,069,910.76 13,753,624.93 1,356,752.70 2,165,350.07 2,317,016.92 9,632,112.15 59,224.43

0.33 0.29 0.40 0.33 0.19 3.88 0.24 0.27 0.26 1.85 0.06

-322,231.37

378,047.02

14,892,536,042.39

104.67

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico movi Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

mayo

marzo

febrero

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

2017

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMAND

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

abril

agosto

2015

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

enero

0

febrero

50000

mayo

100000

marzo

150000

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

200000

abril

DEMAN

250000

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico mov Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2019

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio

junio 2019

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

noviembre

diciembre

noviembre

diciembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

2016

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2018

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Periodo t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Produccion mensual

901.42 657.79 1,606.63 2,119.14 860.42 1,090.52 1,090.52 2,079.64 2,003.17 1,455.33 2,040.15 1,367.77 557.62 1,065.47 2,313.24 2,606.38 940.25 2,915.29 2,499.08 1,580.00 1,531.70 1,580.00 2,876.52 1,288.10 3,561.94 710.67 1,880.87 3,762.74 1,709.31 1,842.37 675.57 1,138.60 1,142.52 3,430.73 2,942.15 1,010.54 334.76

P R O M E D I O M O V I L S I M P L

Pronostico N=3 Movil simple

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

1,055.28 1,461.19 1,528.73 1,356.69 1,013.82 1,420.23 1,724.44 1,846.05 1,832.88 1,621.08 1,321.85 996.95 1,312.11 1,995.03 1,953.29 2,153.97 2,118.20 2,331.45 1,870.26 1,563.90 1,996.07 1,914.87 2,575.52 1,853.57 2,051.16 2,118.09 2,450.97 2,438.14 1,409.08 1,218.85 985.56 1,903.95 2,505.13 2,461.14

1,063.86 -600.76 -438.21 -266.17 1,065.82 582.94 -269.12 194.11 -465.11 -1,063.47 -256.38 1,316.29 1,294.27 -1,054.78 962.00 345.11 -538.20 -799.75 -290.26 1,312.62 -707.98 1,647.07 -1,864.85 27.31 1,711.58 -408.78 -608.60 -1,762.57 -270.48 -76.33 2,445.17 1,038.20 -1,494.60 -2,126.38

1,063.86 600.76 438.21 266.17 1,065.82 582.94 269.12 194.11 465.11 1,063.47 256.38 1,316.29 1,294.27 1,054.78 962.00 345.11 538.20 799.75 290.26 1,312.62 707.98 1,647.07 1,864.85 27.31 1,711.58 408.78 608.60 1,762.57 270.48 76.33 2,445.17 1,038.20 1,494.60 2,126.38

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

3,479.66 1,211.15 3,854.95 1,042.94 3,798.88 1,854.42 1,815.96 3,378.54 1,815.96 1,581.73 2,780.25

89,783.33 87,578.91

I M P L E N = 3

1,429.15 1,608.32 1,675.19 2,848.59 2,036.35 2,898.92 2,232.08 2,489.75 2,349.64 2,336.82 2,258.74 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 2,059.31 109,234.81 87,489.98

2,050.51 -397.17 2,179.76 -1,805.65 1,762.54 -1,044.51 -416.12 888.79 -533.68 -755.09 521.51

2,050.51 397.17 2,179.76 1,805.65 1,762.54 1,044.51 416.12 888.79 533.68 755.09 521.51

2,094.43

42,724.47

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

1,131,799.60 360,917.83 192,026.36 70,848.08 1,135,974.14 339,816.72 72,423.52 37,677.22 216,330.64 1,130,960.38 65,730.01 1,732,629.21 1,675,130.35 1,112,569.29 925,440.23 119,099.12 289,663.38 639,602.52 84,251.17 1,722,969.40 501,230.10 2,712,829.98 3,477,677.04 745.59 2,929,506.06 167,104.61 370,397.43 3,106,653.96 73,160.92 5,826.15 5,978,852.51 1,077,859.27 2,233,821.92 4,521,497.05

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

0.50 0.70 0.40 0.24 0.51 0.29 0.18 0.10 0.34 1.91 0.24 0.57 0.50 1.12 0.33 0.14 0.34 0.52 0.18 0.46 0.55 0.46 2.62 0.01 0.45 0.24 0.33 2.61 0.24 0.07 0.71 0.35 1.48 6.35

Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 PROMEDIO

Error de pronóstico

MOVIL PONDERAD O

W1 0.1

W2 0.4

W3 0.5

1156.57133765144 1767.99995290577 1438.52952251495 1101.34319798014 1067.51135375539 1585.08176891921 1942.49215818261 1736.89429188441 1802.52316790735 1645.47728020568 1029.93033062627 892.556432165147 1638.57014117572 2335.0327348074 1743.99778422186 2094.37913462317 2509.67773389911 2081.15905745773 1647.75874073577 1560.68058547218 2223.42974450276 1952.65665754447 2583.86071038836 1908.91838813798 1580.89676385321 2704.7854703514 2547.8372573116 1981.1826804921 1245.66376218656 1023.76479444482 1094.25566520883 2286.23271401743 2957.61916371704 2025.20065341388

-101.29 -306.81 90.20 255.35 -53.69 -164.85 -218.05 109.15 30.36 -24.40 291.914796335 104.393727051 -326.46135796 -340.00358779 209.290914991 59.5905123714 -391.47475617 250.295248284 222.500907188 3.21975748437 -227.35590131 -37.784475675 -8.3418162315 -55.350769123 470.26260369 -586.69273996 -96.863654122 456.956829648 163.41904239 195.081884615 -108.69342148 -382.28306237 -452.48630516 435.938150172

4,204,599.72 157,744.12 4,751,374.78 3,260,365.13 3,106,533.11 1,090,999.58 173,155.89 789,952.48 284,815.34 570,167.57 271,972.85

0.59 0.33 0.57 1.73 0.46 0.56 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.48 0.19

58,874,702.35

31.75

865.807875426949 1974.78635385174 2030.91326476619 2759.90140699059 2184.56520698473 2702.11185664151 2551.05444566155 2029.63371307473 2601.09741832644 2440.99313758953 1855.10111546936 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 2,204.41 111,343.39

563.339638364 -366.46887047 -355.72509153 88.6852414842 -148.21890792 196.812754821 -318.97572179 460.118395785 -251.45779881 -104.17240898 403.642158662

-367.38

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

101.29 306.81 90.20 255.35 53.69 164.85 218.05 109.15 30.36 24.40 291.914796335 104.393727051 326.461357963 340.003587789 209.290914991 59.5905123714 391.474756175 250.295248284 222.500907188 3.21975748437 227.355901312 37.7844756752 8.34181623146 55.3507691235 470.26260369 586.692739961 96.8636541221 456.956829648 163.41904239 195.081884615 108.693421478 382.283062366 452.486305155 435.938150172

10,259.91 94,135.15 8,136.04 65,204.25 2,882.62 27,176.66 47,545.31 11,913.92 921.63 595.12 85214.2483195 10898.0502477 106577.018243 115602.439709 43802.6870976 3551.02916469 153252.484722 62647.7113134 49506.6536994 10.3668382581 51690.7058615 1427.66660205 69.5858980394 3063.70764256 221146.916429 344208.371122 9382.56748989 208809.544162 26705.7834157 38056.9417048 11814.2598727 146140.339772 204743.856353 190042.070775

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25 SUAVIZACIÓ N EXPONENCIA L SIMPLE 193,851.00 145613.606225088 109374.651871497 82432.6455652863 α 62354.2693805505 46980.807299069 0.25 35508.2358210498 26903.8072125354 20697.7659471131 16024.1160399073 12381.9188046724 9796.47695174993 7689.29972037038 5906.37878069544 4696.15070795844 4100.42400552367 3726.91226741521 3030.24548714341 3001.50580074905 2875.89861188174 2551.92374150591 2296.86849815764 2117.65115621283 2307.36827492968 2052.55065223453 2429.89780598625 2000.08980590294 1970.28561186114 2418.39904784176 2241.12639189361 2141.43748156724 1774.97042094863 1615.87782758592 1497.53773183966 1980.83616459339 2221.1645405026 1918.50722529511

563.339638364 366.468870473 355.725091531 88.6852414842 148.218907917 196.812754821 318.975721786 460.118395785 251.457798814 104.172408978 403.642158662

317351.548152 134299.433026 126540.340744 7865.07205712 21968.8446642 38735.2604602 101745.511089 211708.938139 63231.0245842 10851.8907922 162926.992249

0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

10,488.43

3,554,360.48

0.39

1522.56981733877 2011.84225725237 1811.66853025025 2322.48965248455 2002.60187155609 2451.67197527431 2302.35782056218 2180.75803635239 2480.20473186162 2314.14321982697 2131.03899494084 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 2,293.34 883,534.07

DEM 250000

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

200000 150000 100000

marzo

enero

0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico N Pronostico m Suavizacion

abril

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

marzo

DEM

febrero

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

abril

DEMA

marzo

214.05 220.37 67.08 37.90 71.47 42.08 31.56 11.94 9.33 10.01 5.07 6.16 12.79 4.54 1.03 0.57 2.96 0.04 0.20 0.82 0.67 0.45 0.26 0.79 0.42 2.42 0.06 0.48 0.41 0.22 2.17 0.56 0.41 0.56 0.33 1.20 4.73

febrero

37,229,538,531.13 21,012,189,002.27 11,613,947,260.86 6,450,259,043.45 3,781,493,381.93 2,105,918,341.09 1,184,579,066.86 616,239,171.01 349,488,055.28 212,249,611.21 106,952,153.20 71,043,134.15 50,860,913.23 23,434,431.81 5,678,244.86 2,232,176.30 7,765,513.64 13,215.51 252,434.65 1,679,355.47 1,040,850.83 513,901.69 575,881.36 1,038,912.33 2,278,253.99 2,955,758.67 14,212.64 3,212,890.42 502,809.51 159,006.06 2,148,769.70 404,967.25 224,070.05 3,737,238.00 924,123.65 1,465,623.21 2,508,262.90

enero

192,949.58 144,955.82 107,768.03 80,313.50 61,493.85 45,890.29 34,417.71 24,824.17 18,694.60 14,568.79 10,341.77 8,428.71 7,131.68 4,840.91 2,382.91 1,494.05 2,786.67 114.96 502.43 1,295.90 1,020.22 716.87 758.87 1,019.27 1,509.39 1,719.23 119.22 1,792.45 709.09 398.76 1,465.87 636.37 473.36 1,933.19 961.31 1,210.63 1,583.75

enero

-192,949.58 -144,955.82 -107,768.03 -80,313.50 -61,493.85 -45,890.29 -34,417.71 -24,824.17 -18,694.60 -14,568.79 -10,341.77 -8,428.71 -7,131.68 -4,840.91 -2,382.91 -1,494.05 -2,786.67 -114.96 -502.43 -1,295.90 -1,020.22 -716.87 758.87 -1,019.27 1,509.39 -1,719.23 -119.22 1,792.45 -709.09 -398.76 -1,465.87 -636.37 -473.36 1,933.19 961.31 -1,210.63 -1,583.75

febrero

50000

Proporción producción

1,957.09 -800.69 2,043.28 -1,279.55 1,796.28 -597.26 -486.40 1,197.79 -664.25 -732.42 649.21

1,957.09 800.69 2,043.28 1,279.55 1,796.28 597.26 486.40 1,197.79 664.25 732.42 649.21

3,830,200.33 641,112.34 4,175,011.50 1,637,251.08 3,226,623.33 356,715.47 236,584.12 1,434,693.18 441,222.81 536,434.51 421,479.39

0.56 0.66 0.53 1.23 0.47 0.32 0.27 0.35 0.37 0.46 0.23

-320,557.21

349,754.96

15,010,781,104.01

270.09

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico movi Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

mayo

marzo

febrero

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

2017

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMAND

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

abril

agosto

2015

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

enero

0

febrero

50000

mayo

100000

marzo

150000

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

200000

abril

DEMAN

250000

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico mov Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2019

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio

junio 2019

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

noviembre

diciembre

noviembre

diciembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

2016

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2018

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Periodo t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Produccion mensual

2,596.54 3,462.05 4,500.67 5,193.08 6,058.59 6,577.90 6,924.11 7,443.42 7,270.31 8,135.83 8,655.14 7,962.72 5,533.61 5,994.75 6,571.17 6,686.45 6,340.60 6,686.45 6,917.02 5,879.46 6,225.31 6,628.81 6,917.02 7,262.87 5,980.51 6,366.35 6,173.43 6,559.27 6,752.19 6,848.65 7,041.57 6,945.11 7,330.95 7,427.41 7,427.41 7,234.49 6,033.82

P R O M E D I O M O V I L S I M P L

Pronostico N=3 Movil simple

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

3,519.76 4,385.27 5,250.78 5,943.19 6,520.20 6,981.81 7,212.61 7,616.52 8,020.43 8,251.23 7,383.82 6,497.03 6,033.18 6,417.45 6,532.74 6,571.17 6,648.02 6,494.31 6,340.60 6,244.53 6,590.38 6,936.23 6,720.13 6,536.58 6,173.43 6,366.35 6,494.97 6,720.04 6,880.81 6,945.11 7,105.88 7,234.49 7,395.26 7,363.11

1,673.33 1,673.33 1,327.12 980.92 923.21 288.50 923.21 1,038.62 -57.70 -2,717.62 -1,389.08 74.14 653.27 -76.86 153.71 345.85 -768.56 -269.00 288.21 672.49 672.49 -955.72 -353.78 -363.14 385.84 385.84 353.69 321.53 64.31 385.84 321.53 192.92 -160.77 -1,329.28

1,673.33 1,673.33 1,327.12 980.92 923.21 288.50 923.21 1,038.62 57.70 2,717.62 1,389.08 74.14 653.27 76.86 153.71 345.85 768.56 269.00 288.21 672.49 672.49 955.72 353.78 363.14 385.84 385.84 353.69 321.53 64.31 385.84 321.53 192.92 160.77 1,329.28

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

6,188.54 6,807.39 6,962.10 7,116.82 6,962.10 7,271.53 7,271.53 7,426.24 7,658.31 7,735.67 8,122.45

320,067.77 312,146.45

I M P L E N = 3

6,898.58 6,485.62 6,343.25 6,652.68 6,962.10 7,013.67 7,116.82 7,168.39 7,323.10 7,452.03 7,606.74 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 7,838.81 395,416.15 312,492.73

-710.04 321.77 618.85 464.14 0.00 257.86 154.71 257.86 335.21 283.64 515.71

710.04 321.77 618.85 464.14 0.00 257.86 154.71 257.86 335.21 283.64 515.71

8,158.12

26,461.18

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

2,800,020.51 2,800,020.51 1,761,249.52 962,194.92 852,324.91 83,234.85 852,324.91 1,078,723.71 3,329.39 7,385,436.25 1,929,534.30 5,496.32 426,766.63 5,906.80 23,627.22 119,612.79 590,680.46 72,358.36 83,064.44 452,239.72 452,239.72 913,394.58 125,159.76 131,874.02 148,872.19 148,872.19 125,093.99 103,383.46 4,135.34 148,872.19 103,383.46 37,218.05 25,845.87 1,766,991.15

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

0.32 0.28 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.04 0.11 0.12 0.01 0.49 0.23 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.09 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.22

Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 PROMEDIO

Error de pronóstico

MOVIL PONDERAD O

W1 0.1

W2 0.4

W3 0.5

3894.8109375 4743.01420833333 5556.5969375 6231.6975 6699.0748125 7149.14185416667 7304.93429166667 7720.38079166667 8308.93 8256.9991875 6817.40996742762 6007.09154073868 6236.84319376392 6571.16565701559 6501.9954922049 6548.10893541203 6767.14779064588 6375.1835233853 6156.14466815145 6392.47606458797 6732.56270824053 7061.12099109131 6587.10538272935 6301.66878750402 6231.30935781434 6385.645193302 6617.14894653349 6781.13077173913 6935.46660722679 6974.05056609871 7147.67838102233 7340.5981753819 7417.76609312573 7330.95218566392

-375.06 -357.75 -305.81 -288.50 -178.87 -167.33 -92.32 -103.86 -288.50 -5.77 566.414427524 489.936920966 -203.6677075 -153.71147736 30.7422954714 23.0567216036 -119.12639495 119.126394952 184.453772829 -147.94729696 -142.18311656 -124.89057535 133.027087717 234.909260541 -57.875938308 -19.291979436 -122.18253643 -61.091268214 -54.660608402 -28.937969154 -41.799288778 -106.1058869 -22.507309342 32.1532990599

504,155.64 103,537.83 382,979.87 215,426.17 0.00 66,489.56 23,936.24 66,489.56 112,367.36 80,452.37 265,958.24

0.11 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.06

28,345,275.34

4.08

6653.44976924765 6231.24689973449 6482.49220253164 6822.86172151899 7023.98916455696 7023.98916455696 7132.28855696203 7240.58794936709 7348.88734177215 7526.8077721519 7673.78551898734 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 7,921.33 398,299.66

245.126118241 254.37052976 -139.24207595 -170.18475949 -61.885367089 -10.314227848 -15.471341772 -72.199594937 -25.78556962 -74.778151899 -67.042481013

-1,893.35

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

375.06 357.75 305.81 288.50 178.87 167.33 92.32 103.86 288.50 5.77 566.414427524 489.936920966 203.667707498 153.711477357 30.7422954714 23.0567216036 119.126394952 119.126394952 184.453772829 147.947296956 142.183116555 124.890575353 133.027087717 234.909260541 57.8759383079 19.291979436 122.182536428 61.0912682139 54.6606084019 28.9379691539 41.7992887779 106.105886898 22.507309342 32.1532990599

140,666.90 127,981.91 93,522.68 83,234.85 31,995.48 28,000.21 8,523.25 10,787.24 83,234.85 33.29 320825.303707 240038.186526 41480.5350775 23627.2182713 945.088730852 531.612411104 14191.0979742 14191.0979742 34023.1943107 21888.4026766 20216.0386334 15597.6558119 17696.2060664 55182.360688 3349.62423502 372.180470557 14928.5722079 3732.14305198 2987.78211086 837.406058754 1747.18054234 11258.4592344 506.578973814 1033.83464044

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25 SUAVIZACIÓ N EXPONENCIA L SIMPLE 193,851.00 146037.38515625 110393.552408854 83920.3319108073 α 64238.5192456055 49693.5381321208 0.25 38914.6293282572 30916.9990795263 25048.603424228 20604.031005671 17486.9800771699 15279.0189120441 13449.9453298664 11470.8622936136 10101.8336244418 9219.16663258528 8585.98729069731 8024.64007826797 7690.09237495933 7496.82340148676 7092.48355334224 6875.69137324722 6813.97039519154 6839.73191666091 6945.51576377631 6704.26522911895 6619.78722530573 6508.19877385591 6520.96733244834 6578.77369998255 6646.24344992816 6745.07571097726 6795.08493246914 6929.05174576783 7053.6418300368 7147.08439323853 7168.93636704993

245.126118241 254.37052976 139.242075949 170.184759494 61.8853670886 10.3142278481 15.4713417722 72.1995949367 25.7855696203 74.7781518987 67.0424810127

60086.8138441 64704.3664105 19388.3557147 28962.8523639 3829.79865969 106.383296103 239.362416231 5212.78150902 664.895600641 5591.77200139 4494.69426033

0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531 0.00864197531

6,519.98

1,662,450.51

0.39

6885.15809807226 6711.00275076938 6735.09965801375 6791.8506928774 6873.09232345552 6895.34519195873 6989.39155219689 7059.92632237552 7151.50575443987 7278.2078601337 7392.57361661926 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 7,575.04 1,156,072.12

DEM 250000

Error de pronóstico

Desviación absoluta media (MAD)

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

200000 150000 100000

marzo

enero

0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico N Pronostico m Suavizacion

abril

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

marzo

DEM

febrero

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

abril

DEMA

marzo

73.66 41.18 23.53 15.16 9.60 6.55 4.62 3.15 2.45 1.53 1.02 0.92 1.43 0.91 0.54 0.38 0.35 0.20 0.11 0.28 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.19

febrero

36,578,268,230.82 20,327,725,006.79 11,213,302,456.61 6,197,979,996.61 3,384,903,609.47 1,858,958,000.03 1,023,393,433.53 551,009,081.07 316,067,583.74 155,456,103.85 78,001,480.11 53,528,162.70 62,668,314.63 29,987,831.95 12,465,616.30 6,414,657.26 5,041,771.09 1,790,754.65 597,646.34 2,615,851.40 751,981.59 60,951.67 10,618.50 179,043.56 931,229.13 114,184.53 199,231.72 2,608.58 53,465.22 72,834.67 156,285.05 40,014.76 287,153.71 248,363.03 139,704.20 7,640.14 1,288,481.70

enero

191,254.46 142,575.33 105,892.88 78,727.25 58,179.92 43,115.64 31,990.52 23,473.58 17,778.29 12,468.20 8,831.84 7,316.29 7,916.33 5,476.11 3,530.67 2,532.72 2,245.39 1,338.19 773.08 1,617.36 867.17 246.88 103.05 423.14 965.00 337.91 446.35 51.07 231.23 269.88 395.33 200.04 535.87 498.36 373.77 87.41 1,135.11

enero

-191,254.46 -142,575.33 -105,892.88 -78,727.25 -58,179.92 -43,115.64 -31,990.52 -23,473.58 -17,778.29 -12,468.20 -8,831.84 -7,316.29 -7,916.33 -5,476.11 -3,530.67 -2,532.72 -2,245.39 -1,338.19 -773.08 -1,617.36 -867.17 -246.88 103.05 423.14 -965.00 -337.91 -446.35 51.07 231.23 269.88 395.33 200.04 535.87 498.36 373.77 87.41 -1,135.11

febrero

50000

Proporción producción

-696.62 96.39 227.00 324.97 89.01 376.19 282.14 366.32 506.81 457.46 729.88

696.62 96.39 227.00 324.97 89.01 376.19 282.14 366.32 506.81 457.46 729.88

485,281.36 9,290.58 51,530.88 105,603.24 7,923.04 141,515.49 79,602.46 134,188.68 256,854.78 209,272.42 532,726.00

0.11 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.09

-305,381.15

318,631.74

13,747,437,475.40

50.88

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

Proporción producción Produccion Pronostico Pronostico Suavizacion

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico movi Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

mayo

marzo

febrero

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

2017

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMAND

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

abril

agosto

2015

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

enero

0

febrero

50000

mayo

100000

marzo

150000

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

200000

abril

DEMAN

250000

Proporción por d producción anua Produccion men Pronostico N=3 Pronostico mov Suavizacion exp

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2019

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

enero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

diciembre

noviembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio

junio 2019

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

enero

10000 0

noviembre

diciembre

noviembre

diciembre

octubre

septiembre

agosto

2016

julio

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

octubre

septiembre

agosto

julio 2018

junio

mayo

abril

marzo

febrero

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS

Proporción por demanda producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN Produccion mensual Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25

Demanda con Tendencia

AÑO

2015

2016

2017

2018

MES Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio

REGRESIÓN LINEAL PRONÓSTICO 𝑒_𝑡= 𝑥_𝑡 - 𝑥_𝑡 PERIODO DEMANDA DEMANDA 1 2,597 38 2559.1208 2 3,462 76 3386.4768 3 4,501 113 4387.8328 4 5,193 151 5042.1888 5 6,059 188 5870.5448 6 6,578 226 6351.9008 7 6,924 264 6660.2568 8 7,443 301 7141.6128 9 7,270 339 6930.9688 10 8,136 377 7759.3248 11 8,655 414 8240.6808 12 7,963 452 7511.0368 13 5,534 490 5044.3928 14 5,995 527 5467.7488 15 6,571 565 6006.1048 16 6,686 603 6083.4608 17 6,341 640 5700.8168 18 6,686 678 6008.1728 19 6,917 715 6201.5288 20 5,879 753 5125.8848 21 6,225 791 5434.2408 22 6,629 828 5800.5968 23 6,917 866 6050.9528 24 7,263 904 6359.3088 25 5,981 941 5039.6648 26 6,366 979 5387.0208 27 6,173 1,017 5156.3768 28 6,559 1,054 5504.7328 29 6,752 1,092 5660.0888 30 6,849 1,130 5719.4448 31 7,042 1,167 5874.8008 32 6,945 1,205 5740.1568 33 7,331 1,242 6088.5128 34 7,427 1,280 6146.8688 35 7,427 1,318 6109.2248 36 7,234 1,355 5878.5808 37 6,034 1,393 4640.9368 38 6,189 1,431 4758.2928 39 6,807 1,468 5338.6488 40 6,962 1,506 5456.0048 41 7,117 1,544 5573.3608 42 6,962 1,581 5380.7168

2018

2019

Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

7,272 7,272 7,426 7,658 7,736 8,122

1,619 1,657 1,694 1,732 1,770 1,807 1,845 1,882 1,920 1,958 1,995 2,033 2,071 2,108 2,146 2,184 2,221 2,259

5653.0728 5615.4288 5731.7848 5926.1408 5966.4968 6314.8528

= 𝑥_𝑡 - 𝑥_𝑡

PERIODO -DEMANDA 10,000 9,000 8,000 f(x) = 37.6840534085974 x + 5744.80319148936 R² = 0.235209937291003

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

DEMANDA vs PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

1

4

7

10

13

16

19

22

DEMANDA

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA

46

49

52

55

58

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE CARNE DE POLLO α β

PER. PRONOSTICA

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

0.25 0.35

PERIODO

m b

DEMANDA ST

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

2596.54063 3462.05417 4500.67042 5193.08125 6058.59479 6577.90292 6924.10833 7443.41646 7270.31375 8135.82729 8655.13542 7962.72458 5533.61318 5994.74762 6571.16566 6686.44927 6340.59844 6686.44927 6917.01648 5879.46401 6225.31483 6628.80746 6917.01648 7262.86731 5980.51363 6366.35321 6173.43342 6559.27301 6752.1928 6848.6527 7041.57249 6945.1126 7330.95219 7427.41208 7427.41208

37.6864276 5744.76112

Gt

5744.76112 37.6864276 4985.97082 -241.080428 4424.18133 -353.328597 4178.31 -315.72 4195.21 -199.30 4511.58 -18.82 5014.05 163.63 5614.29 316.45 6308.90 448.81 6885.86 493.66 7568.60 559.83 8260.11 605.92 8640.20 526.88 8258.72 208.95 7849.44 -7.43 7524.30 -118.63 7225.87 -181.56 6868.38 -243.13 6640.55 -237.78 6531.33 -192.78 6223.78 -232.95 6049.45 -212.43 6034.96 -143.15 6148.11 -53.45 6386.72 48.77 6321.74 8.96 6339.62 12.08 6307.13 -3.52 6367.53 18.85 6477.83 50.86 6608.68 78.86 6776.05 109.84 6900.69 115.02 7094.52 142.60 7284.69 159.25 7439.81 157.81

Ft

5782.44755 4744.89039 4070.85274 3862.58761 3995.90966 4492.76454 5177.68233 5930.73431 6757.71001 7379.51894 8128.431 8866.02871 9167.08518 8467.67088 7842.01298 7405.67492 7044.31003 6625.2489 6402.77079 6338.5505 5990.82711 5837.01494 5891.81082 6094.66548 6435.48684 6330.70428 6351.69654 6303.61277 6386.3801 6528.69417 6687.54106 6885.88393 7015.70861 7237.12084 7443.94546

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

0.947104053 742.713876

7234.49229 6033.82329 6188.53671 6807.39038 6962.1038 7116.81722 6962.1038 7271.53063 7271.53063 7426.24405 7658.31418 7735.67089 8122.45443

7506.84 7233.11 6961.55 6844.96 6792.91 6807.35 6806.58 6896.97 6997.54 7135.61 7322.62 7511.59 7769.61

126.03 -13.88 -104.07 -108.45 -88.71 -52.61 -34.46 9.23 41.20 75.11 114.27 140.42 181.58

7597.61726 7632.86773 7219.22194 6857.48099 6736.50578 6704.19254 6754.74063 6772.11762 6906.20571 7038.73771 7210.72186 7436.89184 7652.00167 7632.86773 7758.89944 7884.93115 8010.96285 8136.99456 8263.02627 8389.05798 8515.08969 8641.1214 8767.15311 8893.18482 9019.21653 TOTAL

Desviación Error de absoluta pronóstico media (MAD)

-3,185.91 -1,282.84 429.82 1,330.49 2,062.69 2,085.14 1,746.43 1,512.68 512.60 756.31 526.70 -903.30 -3,633.47 -2,472.92 -1,270.85 -719.23 -703.71 61.20 514.25 -459.09 234.49 791.79 1,025.21 1,168.20 -454.97 35.65 -178.26 255.66 365.81 319.96 354.03 59.23 315.24 190.29 -16.53

3,185.91 1,282.84 429.82 1,330.49 2,062.69 2,085.14 1,746.43 1,512.68 512.60 756.31 526.70 903.30 3,633.47 2,472.92 1,270.85 719.23 703.71 61.20 514.25 459.09 234.49 791.79 1,025.21 1,168.20 454.97 35.65 178.26 255.66 365.81 319.96 354.03 59.23 315.24 190.29 16.53

Error cuadrático medio (MSE)

Error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE)

10,150,002.91 1,645,668.77 184,743.24 1,770,213.34 4,254,669.95 4,347,802.07 3,050,003.78 2,288,207.29 262,762.59 572,002.33 277,417.54 815,958.35 13,202,118.72 6,115,349.46 1,615,052.91 517,285.54 495,210.01 3,745.48 264,448.63 210,760.41 54,984.49 626,935.40 1,051,046.65 1,364,695.51 207,000.62 1,270.85 31,777.74 65,362.16 133,818.93 102,373.46 125,338.26 3,508.04 99,378.51 36,210.76 273.35

1.23 0.37 0.10 0.26 0.34 0.32 0.25 0.20 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.11 0.66 0.41 0.19 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.04 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00

-363.12 -1,599.04 -1,030.69 -50.09 225.60 412.62 207.36 499.41 365.32 387.51 447.59 298.78 470.45

1,644.49

363.12 1,599.04 1,030.69 50.09 225.60 412.62 207.36 499.41 365.32 387.51 447.59 298.78 470.45

131,859.75 2,556,943.11 1,062,312.04 2,509.07 50,894.47 170,259.12 42,999.48 249,413.36 133,462.30 150,161.17 200,338.88 89,268.92 221,325.80

38,292.55 61,009,145.52

0.05 0.27 0.17 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.06

6.82

INFORMACION DE DEMANDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Plan pronóstico de produccion ASAR SOBREBARRIGA CADERA 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858 12183113.80633 3248830.348356 2030518.96772229 INFORMACIÓN DE CAPACIDAD

Producto A B C

Norma estandar Ts/u (dado en horas) 0.0286 ASAR 0.0500 SOBREBAR 0.0400 CADERA

CAPACIDAD Dias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios = INFORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo por hora regular Incremento por hora extra costo por hora extra Costo M.P. por producto cm por hora

Costo de manufactura A $ 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

B

C 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

Nota: El costo incremento por hora es el comportamiento promedio de liquidacion

4,818 0% 0 0 0

NDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

PRODUCTO ASAR SOBREBARRIGA CADERA

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Niveles de inventario Inv. Inicial Inv. Final (deseado) 0 0 0 0 0 0

N DE CAPACIDAD

Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD ias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios =

1 21 8 1 302 168

2 20 8 1 302 160

3 20 8 1 302 160

4 20 8 1 302 160

5 22 8 1 302 176

ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo de mantenimiento de inv.(KG) Costo por defecit de inv. Costo por subcontratación por producto

Costo de operación A $

B 60 $ 0 0

C 60 $ 0 0

60 0 0

Nota: si se trabaja sobre tasa de tiempo extra no se trabaja sobre tasa de recargo nocturno

Costo por cambio en la fuerza de trabajo mejor llamado rotación Costo de contratacion por operario $ Costo de despido por operario $

350,000 440,000

PRONOSTICO EN KG 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 3384198.27953715 40610379.3544458

PRONOSTICO EN TONELADAS 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20 3,384.20

Capacidad del sistema 6 18 8 1 302 144

7 22 8 1 302 176

8 20 8 1 302 160

9 21 8 1 302 168

10 22 8 1 302 176

11 19 8 1 302 152

12 21 8 1 302 168

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 12,183,113.81 -

OPERARIOS A CONTRATAR

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 49,312.604 591,751.242

B 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 3,248,830.35 -

C 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 2,030,518.97 -

299 CAPACIDAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Plan de produccion e invenTario Horas para Horas disponibles inventario 50,736 48,320 48,320 48,320 53,152 43,488 53,152 48,320 50,736 53,152 45,904 50,736 594,336.000

1,423 431 3,839 3,839 2,847 4,270 8,110 4,701 6,124 35,584.912

Demandas agregadas Periodo 1 2

DAA DAB 29007.4138246 29007.4138246

13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486

Requerimientos DAC RA 6768.3965590743 29007.413824604 6768.3965590743 28169.827649208

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 29007.4138246 348088.9658953

13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 162441.517417783

6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 6768.3965590743 81220.7587088916

27916.241473813 28246.655298417 28831.069123021 26572.482947625 27740.896772229 25482.310596833 23807.724421437 21295.138246041 16525.552070646 13758.96589525 297354.27831912

PLAN M PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 1,044,575 29,316 1,024,135 38,191 1,003,695 26,627 994,805 6,172 1,094,310 85,223 974,365 44,328 1,094,310 123,379 1,073,870 181,989 1,103,200 269,930 1,182,195 436,865 1,112,090 533,696 1,141,315 659,751 12,842,865 2,435,465

Defecit -

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Demanda 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 278,560.00 7,824.14 273,100.00 10,188.28 267,640.00 7,092.41 265,300.00 1,656.55 291,800.00 22,720.69 259,840.00 11,824.83 291,820.00 32,908.96 286,360.00 48,533.10 294,180.00 71,977.24 315,260.00 116,501.38 296,540.00 142,305.51

Defecit -

12

270,735.86

304,380.00 3,424,780.00

175,949.65 649,482.74

-

PRODUCTO C Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 174,100.00 4,890.09 170,675.00 6,355.17 167,300.00 4,445.26 165,800.00 1,035.34 182,375.00 14,200.43 162,400.00 7,390.52 182,375.00 20,555.60 179,000.00 30,345.69 183,850.00 44,985.77 197,050.00 72,825.86 185,325.00 88,940.95 190,225.00 109,956.03 2,140,475.00 405,926.71

Defecit -

ESTADO GENE

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

costo de operación por defecit Por inventario Costo contratación Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la dem

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DA(A) 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 29,007.41 348,088.97

1 2 3 50,736.00 48,320.00 48,320.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO

DAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Tario

Ajuste al plan Horas dedefecit

Periodo

562 993 1,985 3,539.621

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Requerimientos RB

RC 13536.7931181486 13145.5862362972

%A 6768.3965590743 6572.7931181486

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.588 0.275 0.588 0.275

DAT 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 49,313 591,751

0.137 0.137

13027.3793544458 13182.1724725944 13453.965590743 12400.7587088916 12945.5518270402 11891.3449451888 11110.1380633374 9937.931181486 7711.7242996346 6421.5174177832 138764.863215591

6514.1896772229 6590.5862362972 6726.9827953715 6200.3793544458 6472.7759135201 5946.1724725944 5554.5690316687 4968.965590743 3855.3621498173 3210.7587088916 69381.9316077954

0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 0.588 7.05883236290001

0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 0.275 0.137 3.29412408277894 1.64704355432106

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCION E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 143,807,510.73 140,993,518.90 138,179,527.06 136,955,633.35 150,654,569.63 134,141,641.52 150,654,569.63 147,840,577.79 151,878,463.33 162,753,770.81 153,102,357.04 157,125,787.15 1,768,087,927 -

costo de manufactura MO MP 67,111,777.83 65,796,333.02 64,480,888.21 63,917,126.15 70,301,611.04 62,601,681.33 70,306,429.52 68,990,984.71 70,875,010.06 75,953,687.10 71,443,590.60 -

total 143,807,510.73 140,993,518.90 138,179,527.06 136,955,633.35 150,654,569.63 134,141,641.52 150,654,569.63 147,840,577.79 151,878,463.33 162,753,770.81 153,102,357.04 157,125,787.15 1,768,087,927

total 67,111,777.83 65,796,333.02 64,480,888.21 63,917,126.15 70,301,611.04 62,601,681.33 70,306,429.52 68,990,984.71 70,875,010.06 75,953,687.10 71,443,590.60

Inventario 1,744,971.20 2,273,275.73 1,584,913.60 367,384.79 5,072,772.66 2,638,577.19 7,343,965.06 10,832,686.26 16,067,240.79 26,003,878.65 31,767,599.85 39,270,904.38 144,968,170

costo de operacion Defecit -

Inventario 465,722.48 606,444.96 422,167.44 98,604.20 1,352,421.92 703,858.68 1,958,866.87 2,888,875.07 4,284,359.45 6,934,605.74 8,470,566.31

costo de operacion Defecit -

73,332,434.44 825,111,554.02

-

costo de manufactura MO MP 33,555,888.92 32,895,757.27 32,245,262.58 31,956,153.83 35,150,805.52 31,300,840.67 35,150,805.52 34,500,310.83 35,435,095.79 37,979,252.79 35,719,386.06 36,663,807.98 412,553,367.77 -

73,332,434.44 825,111,554.02

total 33,555,888.92 32,895,757.27 32,245,262.58 31,956,153.83 35,150,805.52 31,300,840.67 35,150,805.52 34,500,310.83 35,435,095.79 37,979,252.79 35,719,386.06 36,663,807.98 412,553,367.77

10,473,193.55 38,659,686.65

Inventario 291,076.55 378,284.05 264,598.69 61,627.62 845,263.70 439,911.67 1,223,547.75 1,806,290.96 2,677,724.66 4,334,872.63 5,294,103.94 6,545,001.92 24,162,304.16

-

costo de operacion Defecit -

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

1,768,087,926.94 1,768,087,926.94

825,111,554.02 825,111,554.02

412,553,367.77 412,553,367.77

3,005,752,848.73 -

144,968,170.17 144,968,170.17

38,659,686.65 38,659,686.65

24,162,304.16 24,162,304.16

207,790,160.97

1,913,056,097.11

863,771,240.67

436,715,671.93

148.96

252.21

204.03

174.57

Determinación de la demanda agregada DA(B)

DA(C)

DAT

13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 162,441.52

6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 81,220.76

49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 591,751.24

4 48,320.00

5 53,152.00

6 43,488.00

7 53,152.00

8 48,320.00

9 50,736.00

ADO Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Horas disponibles 50,736 49,743 48,751 48,320 53,152 47,327 53,152 52,159 53,583 57,422 54,014 55,437 623,797

Plan maestro de producción r

Horas para inventario Horas dedefecit 1,423 1,854 1,292 300 4,139 2,154 5,993 8,840 13,110 21,220 25,921 32,045 118,293

-

0

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 1,044,575 1,024,135 1,003,695 994,805 1,094,310 974,365 1,094,310 1,073,870 1,103,200 1,182,195 1,112,090 1,141,315 12,842,865

0 0 0 Desagregacion maestra Inventario neto agregado horas de trabajo por producto INAA INB INC DMA DMB DMc 837.586175395863 391.2068818514 195.6034409257 29845 13928 6964 1091.17235079173 509.4137637028 254.2068818514 29261 13655 6827

760.75852618759 176.344701583454 2434.93087697932 1266.51705237518 3525.10322777104 5199.68940316691 7712.27557856277 12481.8617539586 15248.4479293545 18850.0341047504 69584.7216808773

354.6206455542 177.8103227771 82.8275274055995 41.4137637028 1136.034409257 568.0172046285 591.241291108399 295.6206455542 1645.4481729598 822.2240864799 2426.6550548112 1213.827527406 3598.8619366626 1799.430968331 5825.068818514 2913.034409257 7115.2757003654 3557.637850183 8797.4825822168 4398.241291108 32474.1367844092 16237.0683922

operacion total 1,744,971.20 2,273,275.73 1,584,913.60 367,384.79 5,072,772.66 2,638,577.19 7,343,965.06 10,832,686.26 16,067,240.79 26,003,878.65 31,767,599.85 39,270,904.38 144,968,170

costo de producción 145,552,481.93 143,266,794.63 139,764,440.66 137,323,018.15 155,727,342.29 136,780,218.71 157,998,534.68 158,673,264.05 167,945,704.12 188,757,649.47 184,869,956.89 196,396,691.53 1,913,056,097

operacion total 465,722.48 606,444.96 422,167.44 98,604.20 1,352,421.92 703,858.68 1,958,866.87 2,888,875.07 4,284,359.45 6,934,605.74 8,470,566.31

costo de producción 67,577,500.31 66,402,777.98 64,903,055.64 64,015,730.35 71,654,032.96 63,305,540.01 72,265,296.39 71,879,859.77 75,159,369.51 82,888,292.84 79,914,156.91

28677 28423 31266 27839 31266 30682 31520 33777 31774 32609 366939

13382 13265 14590 12992 14591 14318 14709 15763 14827 15219 171239

6692 6632 7295 6496 7295 7160 7354 7882 7413 7609 85619

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0 0 137.67 0.00 59.52 0.00 137.67 148.96

% de incremento

8.20

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 240.92 0.00 59.52 0.00 240.92 252.21

10,473,193.55 38,659,686.65

83,805,627.99 863,771,240.67

operacion total 291,076.55 378,284.05 264,598.69 61,627.62 845,263.70 439,911.67 1,223,547.75 1,806,290.96 2,677,724.66 4,334,872.63 5,294,103.94 6,545,001.92 24,162,304.16

Total

3,005,752,848.73

207,790,160.97 130,550,000.00 3,213,543,009.70 3,344,093,009.70

costo de producción 33,846,965.47 33,274,041.32 32,509,861.28 32,017,781.46 35,996,069.22 31,740,752.34 36,374,353.27 36,306,601.80 38,112,820.45 42,314,125.42 41,013,490.01 43,208,809.90 436,715,671.93

% de incremento

4.69

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 192.74 0.00 59.52 0.00 192.74 204.03

% de incremento

5.86

10 53,152.00

11 45,904.00

Plan maestro de producción real B 278,560 273,100 267,640 265,300 291,800 259,840 291,820 286,360 294,180 315,260 296,540 304,380 3,424,780

C 174,100 170,675 167,300 165,800 182,375 162,400 182,375 179,000 183,850 197,050 185,325 190,225 2,140,475 8118.468468 8118.918919

12 50,736.00

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 1,015,259.48 12,183,113.81 -

B 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 270,735.86 3,248,830.35 -

C 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 169,209.91 2,030,518.97 -

0 0 0 0 0 0

HORAS POR OPERARIO POR PERIODO=

Plan global de

Plan de Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 591,751.24

DESAGREGACION MAESTRA DEL P

Periodo 1 2

Demandas agregadas DAA DAB DAC RA RB 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 29007.4138246 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28960.82764921

Requerimientos 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 29007.4138 348088.966

13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 13536.7931181486 162441.517417783

6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 6768.396559074 81220.75870889

28899.24147381 28810.65529842 28736.06912302 28651.48294762 28604.89677223 28520.31059683 28445.72442144 28399.13824604 28314.55207065 28262.96589525 343613.2783191

13463.3793544458 13445.1724725944 13409.965590743 13370.7587088916 13348.5518270402 13309.3449451888 13274.1380633374 13252.931181486 13213.7242996346 13189.5174177832 160351.070097442

PLAN M Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 1,016,890.00 1,017,415.00 1,018,360.00 1,017,870.00 1,018,220.00 1,016,890.00 1,018,220.00 1,017,870.00 1,016,890.00 1,018,220.00 1,017,065.00 1,016,890.00 12,210,800.00

B 271,180.00 271,760.00 271,100.00 271,440.00 271,520.00 271,180.00 271,520.00 271,440.00 271,160.00 271,520.00 271,220.00 271,180.00 3,256,220.00

C

Costo de contratacion

169,475.00 169,575.00 169,725.00 169,650.00 169,700.00 169,475.00 169,700.00 169,650.00 169,500.00 169,700.00 169,500.00 169,475.00 2,035,125.00

101,850,000.00 5,250,000.00 21,700,000.00 9,800,000.00 15,400,000.00 154,000,000.00

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUC PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Demanda 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259 1,015,259

Produccion 1,016,890 1,017,415 1,018,360 1,017,870 1,018,220 1,016,890 1,018,220 1,017,870 1,016,890 1,018,220

produccion e inventario Inventario 1,631 3,786 6,887 9,497 12,458 14,088 17,049 19,659 21,290 24,250

Defecit -

11 12

1,015,259 1,015,259 12,183,114

1,017,065 1,016,890 12,210,800

26,056 27,686 184,335

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

15,361.27 27,686.19 12,183,113.81 12,183,113.81 12,210,800.00

-

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 270,736 3,248,830

Produccion 271,180 271,760 271,100 271,440 271,520 271,180 271,520 271,440 271,160 271,520 271,220 271,180 3,256,220

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

produccion e inventario Inventario 444 1,468 1,832 2,537 3,321 3,765 4,549 5,253 5,677 6,461 6,946 7,390 49,643

Defecit -

4,136.89 7,389.65 3,248,830.35 3,248,830.35 3,256,220.00

PRODUCTO C Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Demanda 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210 169,210

Produccion 169,475 169,575 169,725 169,650 169,700 169,475 169,700 169,650 169,500

produccion e inventario Inventario 265 630 1,145 1,585 2,075 2,341 2,831 3,271 3,561

Defecit -

10 11 12

169,210 169,210 169,210 2,030,519

169,700 169,500 169,475 2,035,125

4,051 4,341 4,606 30,702

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

2,558.48 4,606.03 2,030,518.97 2,030,518.97 2,035,125.00

-

ES

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

COSTO POR OPERACION por mantenimiento de inventario Por rotacion o contratacion Por rotacion o despido

Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la demanda agregada

Periodo DA(A) DA(B) 0 0 1 29,007.41 0 0 2 29,007.41 0 0 3 29,007.41 0 0 4 29,007.41 0 0 5 29,007.41 0 0 6 29,007.41 7 29,007.41 8 29,007.41 9 29,007.41 10 29,007.41 11 29,007.41 12 29,007.41 TOTAL 348,088.97 168.00 ERARIO POR PERIODO= 1 2 168.00 160.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO Plan de produccion e invenTario Operarios Operarios en el periodo requeridos 294 309 309 309 281 343 281 309 294 281 325 294 3,629

3 294 309 309 309 281 343 281 309 294 281 325 3,338

Op. Q salen de la linea

Op. Q entran a línea

28 62 15 13 31 149

291 15 62 28 44 440

13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 13,536.79 162,441.52 3 160.00

Horas reales disponibles 49,392.00 49,440.00 49,440.00 49,440.00 49,456.00 49,392.00 49,456.00 49,440.00 49,392.00 49,456.00 49,400.00 49,392.00 593,096

EGACION MAESTRA DEL PLAN GLOBAL DE PRODUCCIÓN EINVENTARIO AGREGADO

mientos RC

%A 6768.3965590743 6757.7931181486

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.588 0.275 0.588 0.275

0 Inventario neto agrega INAA 0.137 0.137

46.5861753958634 108.172350791727

6743.1896772229 6722.5862362972 6704.9827953715 6685.3793544458 6674.7759135201 6655.1724725944 6637.5690316687 6625.965590743 6606.3621498173 6594.7587088916 80176.9316077954

0.589 0.274 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 0.588 0.275 0.137 7.05883991531654 3.29408732071686 1.647072763967

196.75852618759 271.344701583454 355.930876979317 402.51705237518 487.103227771044 561.689403166907 608.275578562771 692.861753958634 744.447929354497 791.034104750361 5266.72168087734

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN REAL Costo de despido 12,320,000.00 27,280,000.00 6,600,000.00 5,720,000.00 13,640,000.00 65,560,000.00

Costo total de la operación 101,850,000.00 5,250,000.00 12,320,000.00 21,700,000.00 27,280,000.00 9,800,000.00 6,600,000.00 5,720,000.00 15,400,000.00 13,640,000.00 219,560,000.00

AN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 139,996,093.71 140,068,370.90 140,198,469.83 140,131,011.13 140,179,195.92 139,996,093.71 140,179,195.92 140,131,011.13 139,996,093.71 140,179,195.92 -

total 139,996,093.71 140,068,370.90 140,198,469.83 140,131,011.13 140,179,195.92 139,996,093.71 140,179,195.92 140,131,011.13 139,996,093.71 140,179,195.92

Inventario 97,054.53 225,359.06 409,913.60 565,301.46 741,522.66 838,577.19 1,014,798.39 1,170,186.26 1,267,240.79 1,443,461.99

costo de operacion contratar 59,911,764.71 3,086,855.50 12,764,679.68 5,764,670.21 -

140,020,186.10 139,996,093.71 1,681,071,012

-

140,020,186.10 139,996,093.71 1,681,071,012

1,550,933.19 1,647,987.72 10,972,337

9,058,842.35 90,586,812

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

costo de manufactura MO MP 65,333,759.02 65,473,494.92 65,314,485.10 65,396,399.25 65,415,673.17 65,333,759.02 65,415,673.17 65,396,399.25 65,328,940.54 65,415,673.17 65,343,395.98 65,333,759.02 784,501,412 -

total 65,333,759.02 65,473,494.92 65,314,485.10 65,396,399.25 65,415,673.17 65,333,759.02 65,415,673.17 65,396,399.25 65,328,940.54 65,415,673.17 65,343,395.98 65,333,759.02 784,501,412

Inventario 26,436.76 87,397.34 109,072.20 150,985.15 197,660.01 224,096.78 270,771.63 312,684.59 337,930.88 384,605.74 413,423.45 439,860.22 2,954,925

costo de operacion contratar 27,958,823.53 1,442,849.80 5,956,880.22 2,690,152.48 4,227,545.08 42,276,251

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

costo de manufactura MO MP 32,664,470.27 32,683,744.19 32,712,655.06 32,698,199.63 32,707,836.58 32,664,470.27 32,707,836.58 32,698,199.63 32,669,288.75 -

total 32,664,470.27 32,683,744.19 32,712,655.06 32,698,199.63 32,707,836.58 32,664,470.27 32,707,836.58 32,698,199.63 32,669,288.75

Inventario 15,778.93 37,510.24 68,170.12 94,365.72 123,537.51 139,316.44 168,488.22 194,683.82 211,950.85

costo de operacion contratar 13,979,411.76 720,294.71 2,978,440.11 1,345,177.30 -

32,707,836.58 32,669,288.75 32,664,470.27 392,248,297

-

32,707,836.58 32,669,288.75 32,664,470.27 392,248,297

241,122.63 258,389.66 274,168.59 1,827,483

2,113,612.57 21,136,936

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOSDE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

1,681,071,011.67 1,681,071,011.67

784,501,411.60 784,501,411.60

392,248,296.56 392,248,296.56

2,857,820,719.83 -

10,972,336.84 90,586,812.44 38,564,808.92 140,123,958.20

2,954,924.74 42,276,251.10 17,996,601.05 63,227,776.90

1,827,482.73 21,136,936.45 8,998,590.02 31,963,009.21

15,754,744.31 154,000,000.00 65,560,000.00

1,821,194,969.86

847,729,188.51

424,211,305.77

149.15

260.34

208.44

176.73

la demanda agregada DA(C)

DAT 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 6,768.40 81,220.76

49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 49,312.60 591,751.24

4 160.00

5 176.00

0 0 Inventario neto agregado INB INC DMA 22.2068818513999 10.6034409257 73.4137637027998 25.2068818514

6 144.00

7 176.00

Desagregacion maestra horas de trabajo por producto DMB DMc 29054 13559 29069 13588

8 160.00

6779 6783

9 168.00

91.6206455541997 45.8103227771 126.8275274056 63.4137637028 166.034409256999 83.0172046285 188.241291108399 93.6206455542 227.448172959799 113.2240864799 262.655054811199 130.8275274056 283.861936662599 142.4309683313 323.068818513999 162.034409257 347.275700365399 173.6378501827 369.482582216799 184.2412911084 2482.13678440919 1228.0683922046

e operacion Despedir 7,247,103.33 16,047,091.82 3,882,377.03 3,364,740.73

Total 60,008,819.24 3,312,214.56 409,913.60 565,301.46 7,988,625.99 13,603,256.87 17,061,890.21 6,934,856.47 5,149,617.82 4,808,202.72

29096 29082 29092 29054 29092 29082 29054 29092 29059 29054 348880

costo de producción 200,004,912.95 143,380,585.46 140,608,383.43 140,696,312.59 148,167,821.91 153,599,350.58 157,241,086.13 147,065,867.59 145,145,711.52 144,987,398.63

13555 13572 13576 13559 13576 13572 13558 13576 13561 13559 162811

6789 6786 6788 6779 6788 6786 6780 6788 6780 6779 81405

593096

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

8,023,496.01 38,564,809

10,609,775.54 9,671,483.73 140,123,958

e operacion Despedir 3,381,931.11 7,488,418.45 1,811,703.15 1,570,212.34 3,744,335.99 17,996,601

Total 27,985,260.29 1,530,247.13 109,072.20 150,985.15 3,579,591.13 6,180,976.99 7,759,190.09 3,002,837.07 2,149,634.03 1,954,818.08 4,640,968.53 4,184,196.21 63,227,777

e operacion Despedir 1,690,965.56 3,744,489.72 905,919.82

Total 13,995,190.69 757,804.95 68,170.12 94,365.72 1,814,503.06 3,117,756.54 3,912,977.95 1,539,861.12 1,117,870.66

150,629,961.64 149,667,577.44 1,821,194,970

costo de producción 93,319,019.31 67,003,742.05 65,423,557.30 65,547,384.40 68,995,264.29 71,514,736.01 73,174,863.26 68,399,236.32 67,478,574.57 67,370,491.24 69,984,364.51 69,517,955.23 847,729,189

costo de producción 46,659,660.97 33,441,549.13 32,780,825.19 32,792,565.34 34,522,339.65 35,782,226.82 36,620,814.53 34,238,060.75 33,787,159.41

% de incremento

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

% de incremento

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

785,046.93 1,872,168.00 8,998,590

Total

2,857,820,719.83

235,314,744.31 3,093,135,464.14

1,026,169.56 2,372,002.23 2,146,336.58 31,963,009

33,734,006.15 35,041,290.98 34,810,806.85 424,211,306

% de incremento

10 176.00

1.000 1.000

11 152.00

12 168.00

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

14,088 137.67 0.00 59.52 0.00 137.67 149.15

8.34

3,765 0 0 240.92 0.00 59.52 0.00 240.92 260.34

8.06

2,341 0 0 192.74 0.00 59.52 0.00 192.74 208.44

8.15

INFORMACION DE DEMANDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Plan pronóstico de produccion MILANESA COSTILLAS CHORIZOS 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402 9258535.087679 3967943.609005 2645295.73933682 INFORMACIÓN DE CAPACIDAD

Producto A B C

Norma estandar Ts/u (dado en horas) 0.0333 MILANESA 0.0667 COSTILLAS 0.0250 CHORIZOS

CAPACIDAD Dias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios = INFORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo por hora regular Incremento por hora extra costo por hora extra Costo M.P. por producto cm por hora

Costo de manufactura A $ 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

B

C 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

Nota: El costo incremento por hora es el comportamiento promedio de liquidacion

4,818 0% 0 0 0

NDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

PRODUCTO MILANESA COSTILLAS CERDO

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Niveles de inventario Inv. Inicial Inv. Final (deseado) 0 0 0 0 0 0

N DE CAPACIDAD

Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD ias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios =

1 21 8 1 325 168

2 20 8 1 325 160

3 20 8 1 325 160

4 20 8 1 325 160

5 22 8 1 325 176

ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo de mantenimiento de inv.(KG) Costo por defecit de inv. Costo por subcontratación por producto

Costo de operación A $

B 48 $ 0 0

C 48 $ 0 0

48 0 0

Nota: si se trabaja sobre tasa de tiempo extra no se trabaja sobre tasa de recargo nocturno

Costo por cambio en la fuerza de trabajo mejor llamado rotación Costo de contratacion por operario $ Costo de despido por operario $

350,000 440,000

PRONOSTICO EN KG 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 2204413.11611402 26452957.3933682

PRONOSTICO EN TONELADAS 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402 2204.41311611402

Capacidad del sistema 6 18 8 1 325 144

7 22 8 1 325 176

8 20 8 1 325 160

9 21 8 1 325 168

10 22 8 1 325 176

11 19 8 1 325 152

12 21 8 1 325 168

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 9,258,535.09 -

OPERARIOS A CONTRATAR

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 53,273.317 639,279.804

B 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 3,967,943.61 -

C 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 2,645,295.74 -

323 CAPACIDAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Plan de produccion e invenTario Horas para Horas disponibles inventario 54,600 52,000 52,000 52,000 57,200 46,800 57,200 52,000 54,600 57,200 49,400 54,600 639,600.000

1,327 53 3,927 3,927 2,653 3,980 7,907 4,033 5,360 33,167.076

Demandas agregadas Periodo 1 2

DAA DAB 25718.15302133 25718.15302133

22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402

Requerimientos DAC RA 5511.03279028504 25718.15302133 5511.03279028504 25077.30604266

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 25718.15302133 308617.836256

22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 264529.573933682

5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 5511.03279028504 66132.3934834205

25051.459063991 25640.612085321 25718.15302133 23822.30604266 25051.459063991 23156.612085321 21875.765106651 19953.918127981 16137.071149311 14190.224170642 271393.03898119

PLAN PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 790,770 19,225 772,320 20,001 753,870 2,326 753,120 828,420 56,875 734,670 20,001 828,390 76,846 809,970 115,272 829,200 172,927 886,050 287,432 829,950 345,838 849,180 423,473 9,665,910 1,540,217

Defecit 16,098 16,098

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Demanda 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 338,895.00 8,233.03 330,990.00 8,561.07 323,100.00 999.10 322,755.00 355,035.00 24,373.03 314,850.00 8,561.07 355,035.00 32,934.10 347,130.00 49,402.13 355,365.00 74,105.16 379,740.00 123,183.20 355,695.00 148,216.23

Defecit 6,907.87 -

12

330,661.97

363,945.00 4,142,535.00

181,499.26 660,067.37

6,907.87

PRODUCTO C Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 225,920.00 5,478.69 220,680.00 5,717.38 215,400.00 676.07 215,160.00 236,680.00 16,238.69 209,920.00 5,717.38 236,680.00 21,956.07 231,440.00 32,954.75 236,880.00 49,393.44 253,160.00 82,112.13 237,160.00 98,830.82 242,600.00 120,989.51 2,761,680.00 440,064.91

Defecit 4,605.25 4,605.25

ESTADO GENE

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

costo de operación por defecit Por inventario Costo contratación Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la dem

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DA(A) 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 25,718.15 308,617.84

1 2 3 54,600.00 52,000.00 52,000.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO

DAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Tario

Ajuste al plan Horas dedefecit 1,220 1,273 2,547 5,039.902

Requerimientos RB 22044.1311611402 21495.2623222803

RC %A 5511.03279028504 5374.06558057008

Periodo

DAT

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 53,273 639,279.804

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.483 0.414 0.483 0.414

0.103 0.103

21473.3934834205 21977.5246445607 22044.1311611402 20419.2623222803 21473.3934834205 19848.5246445607 18750.6558057008 17103.786966841 13831.9181279812 12163.0492891213 232625.033412448

5368.09837085513 5494.13116114017 5511.03279028504 5105.06558057008 5368.09837085513 4962.13116114017 4687.16395142521 4276.19674171025 3458.2295319953 3040.26232228034 58155.5083531119

0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 5.79308206077776

0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 4.96554953611368 1.24136840310857

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCION E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 127,010,292.35 124,046,927.67 121,083,562.98 120,963,101.00 133,057,483.71 117,999,736.31 133,052,665.23 130,094,119.02 133,182,764.17 142,313,782.19 133,303,226.15 136,391,871.29 1,552,499,532 -

costo de manufactura MO MP 108,863,899.81 106,324,561.29 103,790,041.25 103,679,216.23 114,048,583.40 101,139,877.71 114,048,583.40 111,509,244.88 114,154,589.94 121,984,618.58 114,260,596.48 -

total 127,010,292.35 124,046,927.67 121,083,562.98 120,963,101.00 133,057,483.71 117,999,736.31 133,052,665.23 130,094,119.02 133,182,764.17 142,313,782.19 133,303,226.15 136,391,871.29 1,552,499,532

total 108,863,899.81 106,324,561.29 103,790,041.25 103,679,216.23 114,048,583.40 101,139,877.71 114,048,583.40 111,509,244.88 114,154,589.94 121,984,618.58 114,260,596.48

Inventario 915,495.68 952,419.94 110,772.77 2,708,352.83 952,419.94 3,659,344.19 5,489,125.59 8,234,621.28 13,687,259.82 16,468,469.79 20,165,394.04 73,343,676

costo de operacion Defecit -

Inventario 392,049.17 407,669.77 47,576.08 1,160,620.60 407,669.77 1,568,290.37 2,352,482.40 3,528,817.28 5,865,866.45 7,057,915.62

costo de operacion Defecit -

116,910,760.02 1,330,714,572.98

-

costo de manufactura MO MP 27,214,770.33 26,583,549.56 25,947,510.31 25,918,599.44 28,510,941.23 25,287,378.67 28,510,941.23 27,879,720.46 28,535,033.63 30,496,154.65 28,568,762.98 29,224,076.15 332,677,438.63 -

116,910,760.02 1,330,714,572.98

total 27,214,770.33 26,583,549.56 25,947,510.31 25,918,599.44 28,510,941.23 25,287,378.67 28,510,941.23 27,879,720.46 28,535,033.63 30,496,154.65 28,568,762.98 29,224,076.15 332,677,438.63

8,642,821.94 31,431,779.45

Inventario 260,889.92 272,256.04 32,193.58 773,270.88 272,256.04 1,045,526.91 1,569,273.98 2,352,068.66 3,910,101.44 4,706,229.46 5,761,405.10 20,955,472.02

-

costo de operacion Defecit -

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

1,552,499,532.06 1,552,499,532.06

1,330,714,572.98 1,330,714,572.98

332,677,438.63 332,677,438.63

3,215,891,543.67 -

73,343,675.86 73,343,675.86

31,431,779.45 31,431,779.45

20,955,472.02 20,955,472.02

125,730,927.33

1,625,843,207.93

1,362,146,352.43

353,632,910.64

168.20

328.82

128.05

201.67

Determinación de la demanda agregada DA(B)

DA(C)

DAT

22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 264,529.57

5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 66,132.39

53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 639,279.80

4 52,000.00

5 57,200.00

6 46,800.00

7 57,200.00

8 52,000.00

9 54,600.00

GREGADO Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Horas disponibles 54,600 53,327 52,053 52,000 57,200 50,727 57,200 55,927 57,253 61,180 57,307 58,633 667,406.978

Plan maestro de produc

Horas para inventario Horas dedefecit 1,327 1,380 160 3,927 1,380 5,307 7,960 11,940 19,847 23,880 29,240 106,348.106

1,113 -

1,113.219

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 790,770 772,320 753,870 753,120 828,420 734,670 828,390 809,970 829,200 886,050 829,950 849,180 9,665,910.000

0 0 0 Desagregacion maestra Inventario neto agregado horas de trabajo por producto INAA INB INC DMA DMB DMc 640.846978669808 548.868838859835 136.967209715 26359 22593 5648 666.693957339616 570.73767771967 142.9344194299 25744 22066 5517

77.5409360094236 0 1895.84697866981 666.693957339616 2561.54093600942 3842.38791467923 5764.23489334904 9581.08187201885 11527.9288506887 14115.7758293585 51340.573104132

66.6065165795044 16.90162914487 0 0 1624.86883885983 405.967209715 570.73767771967 142.9344194299 2195.6065165795 548.9016291449 3293.47535543934 823.8688388598 4940.34419429917 1234.836048575 8212.21303315901 2052.80325829 9881.08187201884 2470.770468005 12099.9507108787 3024.73767772 44004.4912321131 11001.62280803

operacion total 915,495.68 952,419.94 110,772.77 2,708,352.83 952,419.94 3,659,344.19 5,489,125.59 8,234,621.28 13,687,259.82 16,468,469.79 20,165,394.04 73,343,676

costo de producción 127,925,788.04 124,999,347.61 121,194,335.74 120,963,101.00 135,765,836.54 118,952,156.25 136,712,009.42 135,583,244.61 141,417,385.44 156,001,042.00 149,771,695.93 156,557,265.33 1,625,843,208

operacion total 392,049.17 407,669.77 47,576.08 1,160,620.60 407,669.77 1,568,290.37 2,352,482.40 3,528,817.28 5,865,866.45 7,057,915.62

costo de producción 109,255,948.98 106,732,231.06 103,837,617.33 103,679,216.23 115,209,204.00 101,547,547.48 115,616,873.76 113,861,727.27 117,683,407.22 127,850,485.04 121,318,512.10

25129 25104 27614 24489 27613 26999 27640 29535 27665 28306 322197

21540 21517 23669 20990 23669 23142 23691 25316 23713 24263 276169

5385 5379 5917 5248 5917 5786 5922 6329 5929 6065 69042

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0 0 160.62 0.00 47.62 0.00 160.62 168.20

% de incremento

4.72

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 321.23 0.00 47.62 0.00 321.23 328.82

8,642,821.94 31,431,779.45

125,553,581.96 1,362,146,352.43

operacion total 260,889.92 272,256.04 32,193.58 773,270.88 272,256.04 1,045,526.91 1,569,273.98 2,352,068.66 3,910,101.44 4,706,229.46 5,761,405.10 20,955,472.02

Total

3,215,891,543.67

125,730,927.33 106,750,000.00 3,341,622,471.00 3,448,372,471.00

costo de producción 27,475,660.26 26,855,805.60 25,979,703.89 25,918,599.44 29,284,212.10 25,559,634.70 29,556,468.14 29,448,994.44 30,887,102.29 34,406,256.09 33,274,992.44 34,985,481.25 353,632,910.64

% de incremento

2.36

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 120.46 0.00 47.62 0.00 120.46 128.05

% de incremento

6.30

10 57,200.00

11 49,400.00

12 54,600.00

Plan maestro de producción real B 338,895 330,990 323,100 322,755 355,035 314,850 355,035 347,130 355,365 379,740 355,695 363,945 4,142,535.000

C 225,920 220,680 215,400 215,160 236,680 209,920 236,680 231,440 236,880 253,160 237,160 242,600 2,761,680.000 8118.468468468 8118.918918919

-

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 771,544.59 9,258,535.09 -

B 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 330,661.97 3,967,943.61 -

C 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 220,441.31 2,645,295.74 -

0 0 0 0 0 0

HORAS POR OPERARIO POR PERIODO=

Plan global de

Plan de Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 639,279.80

DESAGREGACION MAESTRA DEL P

Periodo 1 2

Demandas agregadas DAA DAB DAC RA RB 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25718.15302133 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25645.30604266

Requerimientos 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 25718.153 308617.836

22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 22044.1311611402 264529.573933682

5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 5511.032790285 66132.39348342

25672.45906399 25638.61208532 25635.76510665 25608.91812798 25606.07114931 25579.22417064 25576.37719197 25503.5302133 25477.68323463 25439.83625596 307101.9356638

21942.3934834205 21976.5246445607 21973.6558057008 21950.786966841 21947.9181279812 21925.0492891213 21922.1804502615 21860.3116114016 21837.4427725418 21805.573933682 263230.099407793

PLAN M Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 773,730.00 770,730.00 772,560.00 771,630.00 772,350.00 771,630.00 772,350.00 771,630.00 773,730.00 772,320.00 772,680.00 773,730.00 9,269,070.00

B 331,590.00 331,260.00 330,150.00 330,705.00 331,005.00 330,705.00 331,005.00 330,705.00 331,590.00 331,005.00 331,140.00 331,590.00 3,972,450.00

C

Costo de contratacion

221,080.00 220,200.00 220,720.00 220,480.00 220,640.00 220,480.00 220,680.00 220,480.00 221,040.00 220,680.00 220,760.00 221,080.00 2,648,320.00

110,250,000.00 5,250,000.00 23,450,000.00 10,500,000.00 16,800,000.00 166,250,000.00

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUC PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Demanda 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545 771,545

Produccion 773,730 770,730 772,560 771,630 772,350 771,630 772,350 771,630 773,730 772,320

produccion e inventario Inventario 2,185 1,371 2,386 2,472 3,277 3,362 4,168 4,253 6,439 7,214

Defecit -

11 12

771,545 771,545 9,258,535

772,680 773,730 9,269,070

8,350 10,535 56,012

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

4,667.66 10,534.91 9,258,535.09 9,258,535.09 9,269,070.00

-

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 330,662 3,967,944

Produccion 331,590 331,260 330,150 330,705 331,005 330,705 331,005 330,705 331,590 331,005 331,140 331,590 3,972,450

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

produccion e inventario Inventario 928 1,526 1,014 1,057 1,400 1,443 1,786 1,829 2,757 3,100 3,578 4,506 24,927

Defecit -

2,077.21 4,506.39 3,967,943.61 3,967,943.61 3,972,450.00

PRODUCTO C Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Demanda 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441 220,441

Produccion 221,080 220,200 220,720 220,480 220,640 220,480 220,680 220,480 221,040

produccion e inventario Inventario 639 397 676 715 913 952 1,191 1,230 1,828

Defecit -

10 11 12

220,441 220,441 220,441 2,645,296

220,680 220,760 221,080 2,648,320

2,067 2,386 3,024 16,018

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

1,334.81 3,024.26 2,645,295.74 2,645,295.74 2,648,320.00

-

ES

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

COSTO POR OPERACION por mantenimiento de inventario Por rotacion o contratacion Por rotacion o despido

Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la demanda agregada

Periodo DA(A) DA(B) 0 0 1 25,718.15 0 0 2 25,718.15 0 0 3 25,718.15 0 0 4 25,718.15 0 0 5 25,718.15 0 0 6 25,718.15 7 25,718.15 8 25,718.15 9 25,718.15 10 25,718.15 11 25,718.15 12 25,718.15 TOTAL 308,617.84 168.00 ERARIO POR PERIODO= 1 2 168.00 160.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO Plan de produccion e invenTario Operarios Operarios en el periodo requeridos 318 333 333 333 303 370 303 333 318 303 351 318 3,916

3 318 333 333 333 303 370 303 333 318 303 351 3,601

Op. Q salen de la linea

Op. Q entran a línea

30 67 15 15 33 160

315 15 67 30 48 475

22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 22,044.13 264,529.57 3 160.00

Horas reales disponibles 53,424.00 53,280.00 53,280.00 53,280.00 53,328.00 53,280.00 53,328.00 53,280.00 53,424.00 53,328.00 53,352.00 53,424.00 640,008

EGACION MAESTRA DEL PLAN GLOBAL DE PRODUCCIÓN EINVENTARIO AGREGADO

mientos RC %A 5511.03279028504 5495.06558057009

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.483 0.414 0.482 0.414

0 Inventario neto agrega INAA 0.103 0.103

72.8469786698079 45.6939573396157

5501.09837085513 5494.13116114017 5493.16395142521 5488.19674171025 5487.2295319953 5481.26232228034 5480.29511256538 5465.32790285042 5459.36069313546 5451.39348342051 65807.5576422333

0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 0.483 5.79310539544606

0.413 0.104 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 0.414 0.103 4.965514855086 1.241379749468

79.5409360094236 82.3879146792315 109.234893349039 112.081872018847 138.928850688655 141.775829358463 214.622808028271 240.469786698079 278.316765367887 351.163744037694 1867.06433624501

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN REAL Costo de despido 13,200,000.00 29,480,000.00 6,600,000.00 6,600,000.00 14,520,000.00 70,400,000.00

Costo total de la operación 110,250,000.00 5,250,000.00 13,200,000.00 23,450,000.00 29,480,000.00 10,500,000.00 6,600,000.00 6,600,000.00 16,800,000.00 14,520,000.00 236,650,000.00

AN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 124,273,396.19 123,791,548.27 124,085,475.50 123,936,102.65 124,051,746.15 123,936,102.65 124,051,746.15 123,936,102.65 124,273,396.19 124,046,927.67 -

total 124,273,396.19 123,791,548.27 124,085,475.50 123,936,102.65 124,051,746.15 123,936,102.65 124,051,746.15 123,936,102.65 124,273,396.19 124,046,927.67

Inventario 104,067.11 65,277.08 113,629.91 117,697.02 156,049.85 160,116.96 198,469.79 202,536.90 306,604.01 343,528.27

costo de operacion contratar 53,224,137.93 2,531,524.22 11,320,506.74 5,068,965.52 -

124,104,749.42 124,273,396.19 1,488,760,690

-

124,104,749.42 124,273,396.19 1,488,760,690

397,595.38 501,662.49 2,667,235

8,110,454.60 80,255,589

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

costo de manufactura MO MP 106,517,300.46 106,411,293.92 106,054,726.46 106,233,010.19 106,329,379.77 106,233,010.19 106,329,379.77 106,233,010.19 106,517,300.46 106,329,379.77 106,372,746.08 106,517,300.46 1,276,077,838 -

total 106,517,300.46 106,411,293.92 106,054,726.46 106,233,010.19 106,329,379.77 106,233,010.19 106,329,379.77 106,233,010.19 106,517,300.46 106,329,379.77 106,372,746.08 106,517,300.46 1,276,077,838

Inventario 44,192.03 72,669.77 48,290.37 50,339.54 66,674.42 68,723.60 85,058.48 87,107.65 131,299.68 147,634.56 170,398.02 214,590.05 1,186,978

costo de operacion contratar 45,620,689.66 2,176,041.56 9,703,417.79 4,344,827.59 6,951,636.32 68,796,613

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

costo de manufactura MO MP 26,631,734.35 26,525,727.81 26,588,368.04 26,559,457.17 26,578,731.08 26,559,457.17 26,583,549.56 26,559,457.17 26,626,915.88 -

total 26,631,734.35 26,525,727.81 26,588,368.04 26,559,457.17 26,578,731.08 26,559,457.17 26,583,549.56 26,559,457.17 26,626,915.88

Inventario 30,413.73 18,922.70 32,193.58 34,035.88 43,497.24 45,339.54 56,705.65 58,547.96 87,056.93

costo de operacion contratar 11,405,172.41 542,434.22 2,426,075.47 1,086,206.90 -

26,583,549.56 26,593,186.52 26,631,734.35 319,021,869

-

26,583,549.56 26,593,186.52 26,631,734.35 319,021,869

98,423.04 113,598.68 144,012.41 762,747

1,737,909.08 17,197,798

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOSDE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

1,488,760,689.65 1,488,760,689.65

1,276,077,837.71 1,276,077,837.71

319,021,868.67 319,021,868.67

3,083,860,396.02 -

2,667,234.77 80,255,589.00 33,986,217.71 116,909,041.47

1,186,978.17 68,796,612.92 29,130,964.32 99,114,555.40

762,747.35 17,197,798.08 7,282,817.97 25,243,363.41

4,616,960.28 166,250,000.00 70,400,000.00

1,605,669,731.12

1,375,192,393.11

344,265,232.07

173.23

346.18

129.99

209.26

la demanda agregada DA(C)

DAT 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 5,511.03 66,132.39

53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 53,273.32 639,279.80

4 160.00

5 176.00

0 0 Inventario neto agregado INB INC DMA 61.8688388598348 15.967209714958 101.73767771967 9.9344194299156

6 144.00

7 176.00

Desagregacion maestra horas de trabajo por producto DMB DMc 25791 22106 25691 22084

8 160.00

5527 5505

9 168.00

67.6065165795044 16.901629144873 70.4753554393392 17.868838859831 93.344194299174 22.836048574789 96.2130331590088 23.803258289747 119.081872018844 29.770468004705 121.950710878678 30.737677719662 183.819549738513 45.70488743462 206.688388598348 51.672097149578 238.557227458183 59.639306864536 300.426066318018 75.606516579494 1661.76943106711 400.44235776671

e operacion Despedir 6,372,422.36 14,231,704.97 3,186,254.15 3,186,181.05

Total 53,328,205.04 2,596,801.30 113,629.91 117,697.02 6,528,472.21 11,480,623.70 14,430,174.76 5,271,502.42 3,492,858.16 3,529,709.32

25752 25721 25745 25721 25745 25721 25791 25744 25756 25791 308969

costo de producción 177,601,601.23 126,388,349.57 124,199,105.41 124,053,799.67 130,580,218.36 135,416,726.34 138,481,920.91 129,207,605.06 127,766,254.35 127,576,636.98

22010 22047 22067 22047 22067 22047 22106 22067 22076 22106 264830

5518 5512 5516 5512 5517 5512 5526 5517 5519 5527 66208

0

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

7,009,655.17 33,986,218

8,508,049.98 7,511,317.66 116,909,041

e operacion Despedir 5,462,111.82 12,198,524.86 2,731,021.60 2,731,030.17 6,008,275.86 29,130,964

Total 45,664,881.68 2,248,711.33 48,290.37 50,339.54 5,528,786.25 9,772,141.38 12,283,583.34 4,431,935.24 2,862,321.27 2,878,664.74 7,122,034.34 6,222,865.91 99,114,555

e operacion Despedir 1,365,465.81 3,049,770.16 682,724.25

Total 11,435,586.15 561,356.92 32,193.58 34,035.88 1,408,963.05 2,471,415.01 3,106,475.82 1,144,754.85 769,781.18

132,612,799.39 131,784,713.85 1,605,669,731

costo de producción 152,182,182.14 108,660,005.25 106,103,016.83 106,283,349.73 111,858,166.02 116,005,151.57 118,612,963.11 110,664,945.42 109,379,621.73 109,208,044.51 113,494,780.42 112,740,166.37 1,375,192,393

costo de producción 38,067,320.50 27,087,084.74 26,620,561.62 26,593,493.05 27,987,694.13 29,030,872.18 29,690,025.38 27,704,212.02 27,396,697.06

% de incremento

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

% de incremento

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

682,788.78 1,502,068.97 7,282,818

Total

3,083,860,396.02

241,266,960.28 3,325,127,356.30

781,211.82 1,851,507.76 1,646,081.38 25,243,363

27,364,761.38 28,444,694.28 28,277,815.73 344,265,232

% de incremento

10 176.00

1.000 1.000

11 152.00

12 168.00

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

3,362 160.62 0.00 47.62 0.00 160.62 173.23

7.85

1,443 0 0 321.23 0.00 47.62 0.00 321.23 346.18

7.77

952 0 0 120.46 0.00 47.62 0.00 120.46 129.99

7.91

INFORMACION DE DEMANDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Plan pronóstico de produccion ALAS PECHUGAS 763286.7728057 3816433.864029 775889.9436964 3879449.718482 788493.1145871 3942465.572935 801096.2854778 4005481.427389 813699.4563685 4068497.281842 826302.6272591 4131513.136296 838905.7981498 4194528.990749 851508.9690405 4257544.845203 864112.1399312 4320560.699656 876715.3108219 4383576.554109 889318.4817126 4446592.408563 901921.6526033 4509608.263016 9991250.552454 49956252.76227

0 INFORMACIÓN DE CAPACIDAD

Producto A B C

Norma estandar Ts/u (dado en horas) 0.0667 ALAS 0.0333 PECHUGAS

CAPACIDAD Dias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios = INFORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo por hora regular Incremento por hora extra costo por hora extra Costo M.P. por producto cm por hora

Costo de manufactura A $ 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

B

C 4,818 $ 0% 0 0 0

Nota: El costo incremento por hora es el comportamiento promedio de liquidacion

4,818 0% 0 0 0

NDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE

PRODUCTO ALAS PECHUGAS

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Niveles de inventario Inv. Inicial Inv. Final (deseado) 0 0 0 0 0 0

N DE CAPACIDAD

Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD ias habiles/mes (promedio) = Jornada de trabajo = Número de turnos = Número de operarios =

1 21 8 1 1185 168

2 20 8 1 1185 160

3 20 8 1 1185 160

4 20 8 1 1185 160

5 22 8 1 1185 176

ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS

Costo de mantenimiento de inv.(KG) Costo por defecit de inv. Costo por subcontratación por producto

Costo de operación A $

B 42 $ 0 0

C 42 $ 0 0

42 0 0

Nota: si se trabaja sobre tasa de tiempo extra no se trabaja sobre tasa de recargo nocturno

Costo por cambio en la fuerza de trabajo mejor llamado rotación Costo de contratacion por operario $ Costo de despido por operario $

350,000 440,000

PRONOSTICO EN KG 7632867.7280572 7758899.43696406 7884931.14587091 8010962.85477777 8136994.56368463 8263026.27259149 8389057.98149835 8515089.69040521 8641121.39931206 8767153.10821892 8893184.81712578 9019216.52603264 99912505.524539

PRONOSTICO EN TONELADAS 7632.8677280572 7758.89943696406 7884.93114587091 8010.96285477777 8136.99456368463 8263.02627259149 8389.05798149835 8515.08969040521 8641.12139931206 8767.15310821892 8893.18481712578 9019.21652603264

Capacidad del sistema 6 18 8 1 1185 144

7 22 8 1 1185 176

8 20 8 1 1185 160

9 21 8 1 1185 168

10 22 8 1 1185 176

11 19 8 1 1185 152

12 21 8 1 1185 168

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A

B 3,816,433.86 3,879,449.72 3,942,465.57 4,005,481.43 4,068,497.28 4,131,513.14 4,194,528.99 4,257,544.85 4,320,560.70 4,383,576.55 4,446,592.41 4,509,608.26 49,956,252.76 -

763,286.77 775,889.94 788,493.11 801,096.29 813,699.46 826,302.63 838,905.80 851,508.97 864,112.14 876,715.31 889,318.48 901,921.65 9,991,250.55 -

OPERARIOS A CONTRATAR

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT

C -

1183 CAPACIDAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Plan de produccion e invenTario Horas para Horas disponibles inventario

178,100.247 181,040.987 183,981.727 186,922.467 189,863.206 192,803.946 195,744.686 198,685.426 201,626.166 204,566.906 207,507.646 210,448.386 2,331,292

199,080 189,600 189,600 189,600 208,560 170,640 208,560 189,600 199,080 208,560 180,120 199,080 2,332,080

20,980 29,539 35,157 37,835 56,531 34,367 47,183 38,097 35,551 39,544 12,157 788 387,729

Demandas agregadas Periodo 1 2

DAA DAB 50885.78485371 51725.99624643

Requerimientos DAC

127214.462134287 129314.990616068

RA 0 50885.784853715 0 45731.781100142

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

52566.20763914 53406.41903185 54246.63042456 55086.84181728 55927.05320999 56767.2646027 57607.47599541 58447.68738813 59287.89878084 60128.11017355 666083.3701636

131415.519097849 133516.04757963 135616.576061411 137717.104543192 139817.633024972 141918.161506753 144018.689988534 146119.218470315 148219.746952096 150320.275433877 1665208.42540898

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

38131.988739281 28927.407771133 18958.038195697 3645.8800129738 0 51439.197825664 41388.673821078 32073.361209204 21614.259990043 18982.370163594 351778.74368252 PLAN

PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 763,287 775,890 788,493 801,096 813,699 826,303 838,906 851,509 864,112 876,715 889,318 901,922

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 853,200 89,913 902,490 216,513 939,165 367,185 963,240 529,329 1,055,985 771,614 973,515 918,827 79,921 1,014,870 243,282 1,016,445 395,615 1,046,205 565,105 941,400 617,186 905,340 620,604 10,611,855 5,415,095

Defecit -

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Demanda 3,816,433.86 3,879,449.72 3,942,465.57 4,005,481.43 4,068,497.28 4,131,513.14 4,194,528.99 4,257,544.85 4,320,560.70 4,383,576.55 4,446,592.41

produccion e inventario Produccion Inventario 4,266,000.00 449,566.14 4,512,420.00 1,082,536.42 4,695,840.00 1,835,910.84 4,816,230.00 2,646,659.42 5,279,880.00 3,858,042.14 4,868,100.00 4,594,629.00 400,100.01 5,073,720.00 1,216,275.16 5,082,420.00 1,978,134.46 5,230,920.00 2,825,477.91 4,707,120.00 3,086,005.50

Defecit -

12

4,509,608.26

4,526,430.00 53,059,080.00

3,102,827.24 27,076,164.23

-

PRODUCTO C Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda

Produccion

produccion e inventario Inventario

Defecit

-

ESTADO GEN

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

costo de operación por defecit Por inventario Costo contratación Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la de

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DA(A) 50,885.78 51,726.00 52,566.21 53,406.42 54,246.63 55,086.84 55,927.05 56,767.26 57,607.48 58,447.69 59,287.90 60,128.11 666,083.37

1 2 3 199,080.00 189,600.00 189,600.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO

DAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Tario

Ajuste al pla Horas dedefecit

Periodo -

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Requerimientos RB

RC 127214.462134287 114329.452750354

%A 0 0

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714

DAT 178,100 181,041 183,982 186,922 189,863 192,804 195,745 198,685 201,626 204,567 207,508 210,448 2,331,292

0.000 0.000

95330.9718482028 72319.0194278324 47394.5954892429 9115.70003243434 0 128581.49456416 103476.184552695 80181.40302301 54037.1499751063 47453.4254089836 879433.859206308

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.000 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 3.14286084456377

0.714 0.714 0.714 0.714 0.000 0.714 0.714 0.714 0.714 0.714 7.85713915543623

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCION E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 274,075,095.00 289,908,617.54 301,689,799.10 309,423,458.17 339,216,114.85 312,724,116.40 326,008,663.46 326,514,603.77 336,074,466.44 302,407,752.50 290,824,128.58 3,408,866,816 -

costo de manufactura MO MP 685,187,737.50 724,766,725.38 754,226,907.00 773,563,463.90 848,033,059.42 781,894,614.38 814,920,470.58 816,317,829.54 840,169,301.42 756,038,655.17 -

total 274,075,095.00 289,908,617.54 301,689,799.10 309,423,458.17 339,216,114.85 312,724,116.40 326,008,663.46 326,514,603.77 336,074,466.44 302,407,752.50 290,824,128.58 3,408,866,816

total 685,187,737.50 724,766,725.38 754,226,907.00 773,563,463.90 848,033,059.42 781,894,614.38 814,920,470.58 816,317,829.54 840,169,301.42 756,038,655.17

Inventario 3,746,384.47 9,021,386.81 15,299,382.04 22,055,370.14 32,150,601.13 38,284,449.99 3,330,041.74 10,136,751.36 16,483,953.86 23,546,024.24 25,716,087.51 25,858,518.65 225,628,952

costo de operacion Defecit -

Inventario 18,731,922.33 45,105,684.06 76,496,285.19 110,277,475.72 160,751,755.64 191,442,874.96 16,670,833.68 50,678,131.79 82,422,269.31 117,728,246.22 128,583,562.53

costo de operacion Defecit -

727,016,955.15 8,522,135,719.42

MO

-

costo de manufactura MP

727,016,955.15 8,522,135,719.42

total

129,284,468.24 1,128,173,509.67

Inventario

-

costo de operacion Defecit

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

3,408,866,815.81 3,408,866,815.81

8,522,135,719.42 8,522,135,719.42

-

11,931,002,535.23 -

225,628,951.93 225,628,951.93

1,128,173,509.67 1,128,173,509.67

-

1,353,802,461.60

3,634,495,767.75

9,650,309,229.09

-

342.49

181.88

208.65

#DIV/0!

Determinación de la demanda agregada DA(B)

DA(C)

DAT

127,214.46 129,314.99 131,415.52 133,516.05 135,616.58 137,717.10 139,817.63 141,918.16 144,018.69 146,119.22 148,219.75 150,320.28 1,665,208.43 4 189,600.00

5 208,560.00

178,100.25 181,040.99 183,981.73 186,922.47 189,863.21 192,803.95 195,744.69 198,685.43 201,626.17 204,566.91 207,507.65 210,448.39 2,331,291.80 6 7 8 170,640.00 208,560.00 189,600.00

9 199,080.00

GADO Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Horas disponibles 199,080 210,580 219,139 224,757 246,395 227,171 242,927 236,783 237,177 244,111 219,664 211,237 2,719,021

Plan maestro de producción

Horas para inventario Horas dedefecit 20,980 50,519 85,676 123,510 180,041 214,409 261,592 299,689 335,240 374,784 386,941 387,729 2,721,109

0 0 Inventario neto agregado INAA INB INC 5994.21514628534 14985.5378657134 14434.2188998583 36084.5472496458

-

0

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 853,200 902,490 939,165 963,240 1,055,985 973,515 1,014,870 1,016,445 1,046,205 941,400 905,340 10,611,855

0

Desagregacion maestra horas de trabajo por producto DMA DMB DMc 0 56880 142200 0 60166 150414

0 0

24479.0112607189 35288.592228867 51440.9618043028 61255.1199870262 5328.06677703726 16218.8021743359 26374.3261789221 37673.638790796 41145.7400099574 41373.6298364065 361006.323094514

61197.0281517972 88221.9805721676 128601.404510757 153154.299967566 13336.6669425933 40542.5054358398 65937.8154473054 94182.59697699 102866.850024894 103427.574591016 902538.807736285

operacion total 3,746,384.47 9,021,386.81 15,299,382.04 22,055,370.14 32,150,601.13 38,284,449.99 3,330,041.74 10,136,751.36 16,483,953.86 23,546,024.24 25,716,087.51 25,858,518.65 225,628,952

costo de producción 277,821,479.47 298,930,004.35 316,989,181.14 331,478,828.31 371,366,715.98 351,008,566.39 3,330,041.74 336,145,414.82 342,998,557.63 359,620,490.68 328,123,840.01 316,682,647.23 3,634,495,768

operacion total 18,731,922.33 45,105,684.06 76,496,285.19 110,277,475.72 160,751,755.64 191,442,874.96 16,670,833.68 50,678,131.79 82,422,269.31 117,728,246.22 128,583,562.53

costo de producción 703,919,659.83 769,872,409.44 830,723,192.19 883,840,939.61 1,008,784,815.06 973,337,489.33 16,670,833.68 865,598,602.38 898,740,098.85 957,897,547.64 884,622,217.70

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62611 64216 70399 64901 0 67658 67763 69747 62760 60356 707457

156528 160541 175996 162270 0 169124 169414 174364 156904 150881 1768636

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0 0 321.23 0.00 41.67 0.00 321.23 342.49

% de incremento

6.62

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 160.62 0.00 41.67 0.00 160.62 181.88

129,284,468.24 1,128,173,509.67

856,301,423.38 9,650,309,229.09

operacion total

Total

11,931,002,535.23

1,353,802,461.60 269,850,000.00 13,284,804,996.83 13,554,654,996.83

costo de producción

% de incremento

13.24

Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.67 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!

% de incremento

#DIV/0!

10 208,560.00

11 12 180,120.00 199,080.00

Plan maestro de producción real B 4,266,000 4,512,420 4,695,840 4,816,230 5,279,880 4,868,100 5,073,720 5,082,420 5,230,920 4,707,120 4,526,430 53,059,080 8118.468468 8118.918919

Determinacion de la demanda neta Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL Poka yoke

A 763,286.77 775,889.94 788,493.11 801,096.29 813,699.46 826,302.63 838,905.80 851,508.97 864,112.14 876,715.31 889,318.48 901,921.65 9,991,250.55 -

B 3,816,433.86 3,879,449.72 3,942,465.57 4,005,481.43 4,068,497.28 4,131,513.14 4,194,528.99 4,257,544.85 4,320,560.70 4,383,576.55 4,446,592.41 4,509,608.26 49,956,252.76 -

C -

0 0 0 0 0 0

HORAS POR OPERARIO POR PERIODO=

Plan global de

Plan de Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

DAT 178,100.25 181,040.99 183,981.73 186,922.47 189,863.21 192,803.95 195,744.69 198,685.43 201,626.17 204,566.91 207,507.65 210,448.39 2,331,291.80

DESAGREGACION MAESTRA DEL P

Periodo 1 2

Demandas agregadas DAA DAB DAC 50885.7849 127214.462134287 51725.9962 129314.990616068

Requerimientos RA RB 0 50885.78485371 0 51683.78110014

127214.462134287 129314.990616068

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

52566.2076 53406.419 54246.6304 55086.8418 55927.0532 56767.2646 57607.476 58447.6874 59287.8988 60128.1102 666083.37

131415.519097849 133516.04757963 135616.576061411 137717.104543192 139817.633024972 141918.161506753 144018.689988534 146119.218470315 148219.746952096 150320.275433877 1665208.42540898

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52531.98873928 53336.40777113 54143.0381957 54971.88001297 55807.93322296 56607.19782566 57437.67382108 58237.3612092 59043.25999004 59848.37016359 664534.6769055

131222.971848203 133341.019427832 135357.595489243 137428.700032434 139521.333057407 141519.49456416 143595.184552695 145594.40302301 147608.149975106 149619.425408984 1661337.73012943

PLAN M Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

A 763,920.00 775,770.00 789,030.00 801,600.00 813,870.00 826,365.00 839,520.00 851,655.00 864,720.00 877,230.00 889,845.00 902,160.00 9,995,685.00

B 3,819,600.00 3,882,060.00 3,941,940.00 4,008,000.00 4,069,380.00 4,131,750.00 4,197,600.00 4,258,290.00 4,323,600.00 4,386,180.00 4,449,270.00 4,510,800.00 49,978,470.00

C

Costo de contratacion

-

370,300,000.00 24,850,000.00 6,300,000.00 6,650,000.00 91,000,000.00 45,150,000.00 71,050,000.00 615,300,000.00

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUC PRODUCTO A Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Demanda 763,287 775,890 788,493 801,096 813,699 826,303 838,906 851,509 864,112 876,715

Produccion 763,920 775,770 789,030 801,600 813,870 826,365 839,520 851,655 864,720 877,230

produccion e inventario Inventario 633 513 1,050 1,554 1,724 1,787 2,401 2,547 3,155 3,670

Defecit -

11 12

889,318 901,922 9,991,251

889,845 902,160 9,995,685

4,196 4,434 27,665

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

2,305.40 4,434.45 9,991,250.55 9,991,250.55 9,995,685.00

-

PRODUCTO B Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 3,816,434 3,879,450 3,942,466 4,005,481 4,068,497 4,131,513 4,194,529 4,257,545 4,320,561 4,383,577 4,446,592 4,509,608 49,956,253

Produccion 3,819,600 3,882,060 3,941,940 4,008,000 4,069,380 4,131,750 4,197,600 4,258,290 4,323,600 4,386,180 4,449,270 4,510,800 49,978,470

sobreinventario = Requerimiento bruto = Requerimiento Neto = Total producido =

produccion e inventario Inventario 3,166 5,776 5,251 7,769 8,652 8,889 11,960 12,705 15,744 18,348 21,026 22,217 141,504

Defecit -

11,792.02 22,217.24 49,956,252.76 49,956,252.76 49,978,470.00

ES

costos de manufactura pormano de obra pormateria prima

COSTO POR OPERACION por mantenimiento de inventario Por rotacion o contratacion Por rotacion o despido

Costo deproduccion costo real costo promedio

Determinación de la demanda agregada

Periodo DA(A) DA(B) 0 0 1 50,885.78 0 0 2 51,726.00 0 0 3 52,566.21 0 0 4 53,406.42 0 0 5 54,246.63 0 0 6 55,086.84 7 55,927.05 8 56,767.26 9 57,607.48 10 58,447.69 11 59,287.90 12 60,128.11 TOTAL 666,083.37 168.00 ERARIO POR PERIODO= 1 2 168.00 160.00 Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO Plan de produccion e invenTario Operarios Operarios en el periodo requeridos 1,061 1,132 1,150 1,169 1,079 1,339 1,113 1,242 1,201 1,163 1,366 1,253 14,268

3 1,061 1,132 1,150 1,169 1,079 1,339 1,113 1,242 1,201 1,163 1,366 13,018

Op. Q salen de la linea

Op. Q entran a línea

90 226 41 38 113 508

1,058 71 18 19 260 129 203 1,758

127,214.46 129,314.99 131,415.52 133,516.05 135,616.58 137,717.10 139,817.63 141,918.16 144,018.69 146,119.22 148,219.75 150,320.28 1,665,208.43 3 160.00

Horas reales disponibles 178,248.00 181,120.00 184,000.00 187,040.00 189,904.00 192,816.00 195,888.00 198,720.00 201,768.00 204,688.00 207,632.00 210,504.00 2,332,328

EGACION MAESTRA DEL PLAN GLOBAL DE PRODUCCIÓN EINVENTARIO AGREGADO

mientos RC

%A 0 0

Porcentajes de desagregación %B %C 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714

0 Inventario neto agrega INAA 0.000 0.000

42.2151462853435 34.2188998583006

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 0.286 0.714 3.42856755401151 8.57143244598849

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0

70.0112607188712 103.592228867048 114.961804302839 119.119987026243 160.066777037267 169.802174335884 210.326178922121 244.638790795965 279.74000995743 295.629836406508 1844.32309451382

Inventario 26,384.47 21,386.81 43,757.04 64,745.14 71,851.13 74,449.99 100,041.74 106,126.36 131,453.86 152,899.24

costo de operacion contratar 105,800,000.00 7,095,860.09 1,801,048.13 1,900,000.00 26,000,135.13 12,899,902.34 -

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN REAL Costo de despido 39,600,000.00 99,440,000.00 18,040,000.00 16,720,000.00 49,720,000.00 223,520,000.00

Costo total de la operación 370,300,000.00 24,850,000.00 6,300,000.00 6,650,000.00 39,600,000.00 91,000,000.00 99,440,000.00 45,150,000.00 18,040,000.00 16,720,000.00 71,050,000.00 49,720,000.00 838,820,000.00

AN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura MO MP 245,395,507.00 249,202,105.54 253,461,641.13 257,499,526.67 261,441,042.63 265,454,835.77 269,680,642.00 273,578,791.65 277,775,687.00 281,794,298.63 -

total 245,395,507.00 249,202,105.54 253,461,641.13 257,499,526.67 261,441,042.63 265,454,835.77 269,680,642.00 273,578,791.65 277,775,687.00 281,794,298.63

285,846,639.60 289,802,611.00 3,210,933,329

-

285,846,639.60 289,802,611.00 3,210,933,329

174,837.51 184,768.65 1,152,702

20,300,000.00 175,796,946

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

costo de manufactura MO MP 613,488,767.50 623,520,841.13 633,138,525.54 643,748,816.67 653,607,425.04 663,625,043.23 674,201,605.00 683,949,388.35 694,439,217.50 704,490,565.04 714,623,826.73 724,506,527.50 8,027,340,549 -

total 613,488,767.50 623,520,841.13 633,138,525.54 643,748,816.67 653,607,425.04 663,625,043.23 674,201,605.00 683,949,388.35 694,439,217.50 704,490,565.04 714,623,826.73 724,506,527.50 8,027,340,549

costo de operacion contratar 264,500,000.00 17,754,139.91 4,498,951.87 4,750,000.00 64,999,864.87 32,250,097.66 50,750,000.00 439,503,054

Inventario 131,922.33 240,684.06 218,785.19 323,725.72 360,505.64 370,374.96 498,333.68 529,381.79 656,019.31 764,496.22 876,062.53 925,718.24 5,896,010

Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOSDE PRODUCCIÓN producto A

producto b

producto C

subtotal

3,210,933,328.60 3,210,933,328.60

8,027,340,549.23 8,027,340,549.23

-

11,238,273,877.83 -

1,152,701.93 175,796,945.69 63,862,691.61

5,896,009.67 439,503,054.31 159,657,308.39

-

7,048,711.60 615,300,000.00 223,520,000.00

240,812,339.24

605,056,372.36

-

3,451,745,667.85

8,632,396,921.59

-

345.32

172.72

-

201.49

la demanda agregada DA(C)

DAT 4 160.00

0 Inventario neto agregado INB INC 105.53786571337 192.547249645781

178,100.25 181,040.99 183,981.73 186,922.47 189,863.21 192,803.95 195,744.69 198,685.43 201,626.17 204,566.91 207,507.65 210,448.39 2,331,291.80 5 176.00

6 144.00

0 DMA 0 0

7 176.00

Desagregacion maestra horas de trabajo por producto DMB DMc 50928 127320 51718 129402

8 160.00

0 0

9 168.00

175.028151797218 258.980572167668 288.404510757158 296.299967565661 398.666942593234 423.50543583979 524.815447305387 611.596976989997 700.850024893647 740.574591016339 4716.80773628525

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

e operacion Despedir 11,314,285.71 28,411,210.39 5,154,260.08 4,777,119.42

Total 105,826,384.47 7,117,246.90 1,844,805.17 1,964,745.14 11,386,136.84 26,074,585.13 28,511,252.13 13,006,028.69 5,285,713.94 4,930,018.66

52602 53440 54258 55091 55968 56777 57648 58482 59323 60144 666379

costo de producción 351,221,891.47 256,319,352.44 255,306,446.30 259,464,271.81 272,827,179.47 291,529,420.90 298,191,894.13 286,584,820.34 283,061,400.94 286,724,317.29

131398 133600 135646 137725 139920 141943 144120 146206 148309 150360 1665949

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2332328

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

14,205,816.01 63,862,692

20,474,837.51 14,390,584.66 240,812,339

e operacion Despedir 28,285,714.29 71,028,789.61 12,885,739.92 11,942,880.58 35,514,183.99 159,657,308

Total

11,238,273,877.83

Total 264,631,922.33 17,994,823.97 4,717,737.05 5,073,725.72 28,646,219.92 65,370,239.82 71,527,123.29 32,779,479.46 13,541,759.23 12,707,376.80 51,626,062.53 36,439,902.23 605,056,372

306,321,477.11 304,193,195.66 3,451,745,668

costo de producción 878,120,689.83 641,515,665.10 637,856,262.60 648,822,542.38 682,253,644.97 728,995,283.05 745,728,728.29 716,728,867.81 707,980,976.73 717,197,941.84 766,249,889.26 760,946,429.73 8,632,396,922

% de incremento

discrepancia del inv. Fin Inventario inicial Inventario final Costo de MO por unidad Costo de MP por unidad Costo de mantenimiento Costo Penal Costo estandar / und Costo real / und

% de incremento

845,868,711.60 12,084,142,589.44

10 176.00

1.000 1.000

11 152.00

12 168.00

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

1,787 321.23 0.00 41.67 0.00 321.23 345.32

7.50

8,889 0 0 160.62 0.00 41.67 0.00 160.62 172.72

7.54

Nivel 1

Nivel 2

Sal 100 gr 1 Mes

PAQUETE DE POLLO MARINADO

ETIQUETA

VINIPEL

BANDEJA

Agua 100 ml

Fosfato 30 ml 0

Ajo 2 ajos 0

t RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO Cs 201.5 Cm 49000 CT/P RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO

Con un paquete de cada ingrediente se alcanzan a marinar 0

-1

0

1 4579720

457972 457972 0 5037692 5037692 5037692 4662900.9 922813580 22440628000 23363441580 4579720 0

5037692

457972 457972 5037692 5037692 4662901 4579720

0

5037692

4662901

0

5037692

4662901

457972 457972 5037692 5037692 4738520 4579720

457972 457972 5037692 5037692 4738520

SAL

AJO

AGUA

FOSFATO

RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO RB STOCK Inventario RN PRO PCO

915944 0

1007539

91595 91595 1007539 1007539 932579 915944

0

91595 91595 1007539 1007539 1007539 915944

0

91595 91595 1007539 1007539 1007539 915944

0

91595 91595 1007539 1007539 1007539

POLLO MARINADO

NIVEL 0

Paquete de pollo marinado 1kg

Mezcla Marinada

Pollo 1000 gr 1mes

Etiqueta

Vinipel 1

Bandeja 1

2 meses

1 2 meses

e cada ingrediente se alcanzan a marinar 5 bandejas, por lo que la demanda se divide entre 5.

2

3 4655339

465533.9 465533.9 4662900.9 4662900.9 4738519.9 938050808.5 22811161100 23749211908.5 4655339

465534 465534 4662901 4662901 4738520 4655339

465534 465534 4662901 4662901 4814139 4655339

465534 465534 4662901 4662901 4814139

4

5

6

7

8

4730958

4806577

4882196

4957815

5033434

5109053

473095.8 473095.8 4738519.9 4738519.9 4814138.9 953288037 2.318E+10 2.413E+10

480657.7 480657.7 4814138.9 4814138.9 4889757.9 968525266 2.355E+10 2.452E+10

488219.6 488219.6 4889757.9 4889757.9 4965376.9 983762494 2.392E+10 2.491E+10

495781.5 495781.5 4965376.9 4965376.9 5040995.9 998999723 2.429E+10 2.529E+10

503343.4 503343.4 5040995.9 5040995.9 5116614.9 1.014E+09 2.466E+10 2.568E+10

510905.3 510905.3 5116614.9 5116614.9 5192233.9 1.029E+09 2.503E+10 2.606E+10

4730958

4806577

4882196

4957815

5033434

5109053

473096 473096 4738520 4738520 4814139 4730958

473096 473096 4738520 4738520 4889758 4730958

473096 473096 4738520 4738520 4889758

480658 480658 4814139 4814139 4889758 4806577

480658 480658 4814139 4814139 4965377 4806577

480658 480658 4814139 4814139 4965377

488220 488220 4889758 4889758 4965377 4882196

488220 488220 4889758 4889758 5040996 4882196

488220 488220 4889758 4889758 5040996

495782 495782 4965377 4965377 5040996 4957815

495782 495782 4965377 4965377 5116615 4957815

495782 495782 4965377 4965377 5116615

503344 503344 5040996 5040996 5116615 5033434

503344 503344 5040996 5040996 5192234 5033434

503344 503344 5040996 5040996 5192234

510906 510906 5116615 5116615 5192234 5109053

510906 510906 5116615 5116615 5267853 5109053

510906 510906 5116615 5116615 5267853

931067

93107 93107 932579 932579 947704 931067

93107 93107 932579 932579 932579 931067

93107 93107 932579 932579 932579 931067

93107 93107 932579 932579 932579

946191

94620 94620 947704 947704 962827 946191

94620 94620 947704 947704 947704 946191

94620 94620 947704 947704 947704 946191

94620 94620 947704 947704 947704

961315

96132 96132 962827 962827 977951 961315

96132 96132 962827 962827 962827 961315

96132 96132 962827 962827 962827 961315

96132 96132 962827 962827 962827

976439

97644 97644 977951 977951 993076 976439

97644 97644 977951 977951 977951 976439

97644 97644 977951 977951 977951 976439

97644 97644 977951 977951 977951

991563

99157 99157 993076 993076 1008198 991563

99157 99157 993076 993076 993076 991563

99157 99157 993076 993076 993076 991563

99157 99157 993076 993076 993076

1006686

100669 100669 1008198 1008198 1023322 1006686

100669 100669 1008198 1008198 1008198 1006686

100669 100669 1008198 1008198 1008198 1006686

100669 100669 1008198 1008198 1008198

1021810

102181 102181 1023322 1023322 1038447 1021810

102181 102181 1023322 1023322 1023322 1021810

102181 102181 1023322 1023322 1023322 1021810

102181 102181 1023322 1023322 1023322

Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

9

10

Plan pronóstico de produccion ALAS PECHUGAS 763286.773 3816433.86 4579720.64 775889.944 3879449.72 4655339.66 788493.115 3942465.57 4730958.69 801096.285 4005481.43 4806577.71 813699.456 4068497.28 4882196.74 826302.627 4131513.14 4957815.76 838905.798 4194528.99 5033434.79 851508.969 4257544.85 5109053.81 864112.14 4320560.7 5184672.84 876715.311 4383576.55 5260291.86 889318.482 4446592.41 5335910.89 901921.653 4509608.26 5411529.92 9991250.55 49956252.8 28612609.2

11

12

5184672

5260291

5335910

5411529

518467.2 518467.2 5192233.9 5192233.9 5267852.9 1.045E+09 2.54E+10 2.645E+10

526029.1 526029.1 5267852.9 5267852.9 5343471.9 1.06E+09 2.578E+10 2.684E+10

533591 533591 5343471.9 5343471.9 5960243.8 1.075E+09 2.615E+10 2.722E+10

1082305.8 200 5960243.8 5960243.8 0 1.09E+09 9800000 1.1E+09

5184672

5260291

5335910

5411529

518468 518468 5192234 5192234 5267853 5184672

518468 518468 5192234 5192234 5343471 5184672

518468 518468 5192234 5192234 5343471

526030 526030 5267853 5267853 5343471 5260291

526030 526030 5267853 5267853 5419091 5260291

526030 526030 5267853 5267853 5419091

533591 533591 5343471 5343471 5419091

541153 200 5419091 5419091 0

5335910

533591 533591 5343471 5343471

5411529

541153 200 5419091 5419091

0 5335910

533591 533591 5343471 5343471

0 5411529

541153 200 5419091 5419091 0

0

4579720 4655339 4730958 4806577 4882196 4957815 5033434 5109053 5184672 5260291 5335910 5411529 28612609

1036934

103694 103694 1038447 1038447 1053570 1036934

103694 103694 1038447 1038447 1038447 1036934

103694 103694 1038447 1038447 1038447 1036934

103694 103694 1038447 1038447 1038447

1052058

105206 105206 1053570 1053570 1068695 1052058

105206 105206 1053570 1053570 1053570 1052058

105206 105206 1053570 1053570 1053570 1052058

105206 105206 1053570 1053570 1053570

1067182

106719 106719 1068695 1068695 1083817 1067182

106719 106719 1068695 1068695 1068695 1067182

106719 106719 1068695 1068695 1068695 1067182

106719 106719 1068695 1068695 1068695

1082305

108231 200 1083817 1083817 0 1082305

108231 108231 1083817 1083817 1083817 1082305

108231 200 1083817 1083817 1083817 1082305

108231 200 1083817 1083817 1083817