The Cognitive Bias Codex

THE COGNITIVE BIAS We store memories differently based on how they were experienced We discard specifics to form gene

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THE

COGNITIVE BIAS

We store memories differently based on how they were experienced

We discard specifics to form generalities

We edit and reinforce some memories after the fact

Tip of the tongue phenomenon Google effect effect Next–in–line ect Testing eff ness minded ct Absent– g effe ocessin –of–pr Levels t effec Suffix ffect n e ct sitio l–po ing effe t c Seria ue c effe –set ncy ffect Part ece e R acy bition i t Prim h c n ry i y effe t c mo t Me odali egle t n M ec ion t eff rat gth ffec t Du n e t–le ecall effec g r Lis n i n l ria atio pen ule r r Se m a for sh nd d –e sin as Mi g an eak bi s P ct b ia e lin fe ve af vity dic as Le ju i ng ti di ga re al b pes P Fa Ne c y pi ot ty re e o te er t s St lici p Im

We reduce events and lists to their key elements

Im

pl

ic

Sp

To avoid mistakes, we aim to preserve autonomy and group status, and avoid irreversible decisions

To get things done, we tend to complete things we've invested time and energy in

ci a at Su cin io n g g Fa ge ef l f Mi s s sa So Cry e m tibi ect ttr ibu urce ptom em lity o tio n o conf nes ry Le f m usi ia ss– em on is– ory be tte O c r Co nju cam' effec sr nc t Law tion f azor Bik of T allac e–s Rhy me– heddin rivialit y y as– reas g effec on e t Beli ffect e Infor mati f bias on b Amb iguity ias bias Status qu Social c omparis o bias on effec t Decoy eff ect Reactance Reverse psycholo gy System justification

Backfire effect Endowment effect t ifficulty effec Processing d t c e rtainty eff Pseudoce ct ion effe Disposit s ia isk b Zero–r a i s Unit b t effec IKEA sion aver ct s s Lo effe t tion a en r e Gen ommitm ion of c scalat cy n o i e a alat nal st fall o i t Esc Irra nk co ect Su eff lty m icti nove ng v to ble nti ifia peal cou t n ct Ap ic dis Ide ffe n l e o o rb an sati on pe m i y n z H e lt at s Pe omp tific bia is n s c us sk rt j iptio the rror i R ffo cr po e ity E as hy on ior i r ait tion ibut pe r T u r u s b tt tri l a ory t a a t s ive men Illu s n fe nda e D Fu

To act, we must be confident we can make an impact and feel what we do is important

Need To Act Fast

so

We notice when something has changed

w on er la i s n n illu ch tio y Fe a as i z e b ali on r– s n io bia tion as M ebe t a ra bi e W irm enc ase ive f t n h u rt n ec Co ngr purc ppo ptio y eff Co st– –su erce tanc Po oice ve p pec ias Ch lecti er–ex r's b Se serv ente ct Ob erim r effe s p a Ex serve on bi i t Ob ecta ect tion ff t Exp rich e valida ffec e e t e Os jectiv enc nflu x i b u d S e refle tinu Con elweis m Sem pot ind s l b s Bia ism cynic e v ï a N realism Naïve

tion Confabula usion Clustering ill ple size Insensitivity to sam Neglect of probability Anecdotal fallacy Illusion of validity Masked–man falla cy Recency illu sion Gambler' s fallacy Hot–han d fallac y Illusor y corre lation Pareid olia Anth ropo morp hism Gro u Ulti p attrib mat utio n er e at Ste ror trib reo u typ Ess tion i n erro g Fun ential r ism c t ion Mo a Ju ral cr l fixe st– dn e d Ar gu worl entia ess l ef Au me d h Au thor nt fr ypot fect Ba tom ity b om f hesis all Pl ndw atio ias ac ac nb y a eb go n e ias o Ou ef Cr t–g fe ffec ct o t In s ro –g s– up r ro ac h up e om fa eff og vo ec en ei rit t ty is m bi as

We think we know what other people are thinking

We are drawn to details that confirm our own existing beliefs

We notice flaws in others more easily than we notice flaws in ourselves

We tend to find stories and patterns even when looking at sparse data

We fill in characteristics from stereotypes, generalities, and prior histories

We imagine things and people we're familiar with or fond of as better

We simplify probabilities and numbers to make them easier to think about

We project our current mindset and assumptions onto the past and future

Too Much Information

Bizarre, funny, visually striking, or anthropomorphic things stick out more than non-bizarre/unfunny things

ct fe ef ct fe er ct ef ad fe ere on ct o le y ef d h ati effe u al r H ee ivit nte val ad e e ro Ch it v s d y ac Po t in ive led e t g all No ac rav tin lity f n Re ell–t ou abi b cc W l a pro nta to as l Me pea cy bi w a al Ap m r 's L ias No rphy b ias Mu sum ip b ct e h ro f Ze vivors ity ef t r fec tiv Su n ef er 7 ± 2 ddi o a i t Sub omina mb l nu Den agica m ency The spar f tran on o dge owle Illusi n e of k ect Curs ff ight e rror Spotl ntive e ic ince ncy Extrins nal age of exter Illusion ic insight asymmetr Illusion of

To stay focused, we favor the immediate, relatable thing in front of us

as

Ac Illu to si o r Se –ob n o lf– se f c Ba ser rve ont rn vin r b ro l Fo um g b ias O i Du e E pti rer ff as n La nin goc mis eff ect g ke m e e Wo –Kru ntri bia ct be ge c b s Fa r ia H g a lse rd– one effe s co c ns easy effe t Th e c n i e t rd– So pe sus e ffect cia rso l f de Ove n e fect rco sirab f fec il nfid enc ity bia t ee s Self ffec –co t nsis te Res ncy bia train s t bia Proje s c t ion b Pro–i nnov ation ias Time– bias savin g bias Plannin g falla cy Pessim ism bia s Impact bia s Declinism Moral luck Outcome bias Hindsight bias Rosy retrospection Telescoping effect

We favor simple–looking options and complete information over complex, ambiguous options

it

We notice things already primed in memory or repeated often Availability heuristic Attentional bias Illusory truth effect Mere–exp osure effe ct Contex t effect Cue–d epend ent for Mood getting – Frequ congruent memo e ry bia Baad ncy illusi s o n e r – M Emp ei nh a o f Phe Om thy ga nom p issio e non Bas n bi as e ra te f alla Biz cy arr ene Hu Vo mor e ss eff n Pic Res ffect ect Se ture torff Ne lf–re supe effec ga l e v t rio a tiv r ity nce ity e An ffe bia eff Co cho ct e s c t Co ns rin D nt erv g Fo istin ras atis Fr cu ct t ef m am si ion fe c in ng b t g ef ias ef fe fe c t ct

What Should We Remember?

CODEX

Not Enough Meaning