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FlexSim COVID-19 Simulation Model Model Inputs Documentation These are the inputs that you can change when you run scenarios of the model. We used the current CDC numbers for the default values (where applicable). To run the model, press the 1 day.

button, then press

, then press the

button to advance the simulation

Initial Infected The number used at the start of the simulation that represent the number of people who have the virus but don’t know it. They are the ones who start the spread of the virus. Weekly Infection Rate This rate comes from the CDC and is the number of people each person infects while contagious. The current number from the CDC is 2.5 to 3.5. We assume that people are infected for 2 weeks before they are diagnosed, so the weekly rate we use for the model is 3.5/2=1.75. Once diagnosed the patient does not spread the virus anymore. Days to Recover after Diagnosis This is the number of days it takes a person to recover from the sickness once they are diagnosed. Days Undiagnosed are Infectious This input is for the 70% of people who get the virus but do not have severe symptoms and do not get diagnosed. By default this is set to 21 days, so this group will spread the virus to 3*1.75=5.25 people. % of Patients Diagnosed This is the % of infected people that get diagnosed (tested positive) with the COVID-19 virus. Diagnosed Patient Death Rate % The diagnosed patient death rate % is the percentage of patients that die after testing positive for the COVID-19 virus. This is not the overall death rate for everyone infected.

Max Death Rate % The max death rate % is the percentage of diagnosed patients that die when no hospital beds are available. The default is 4% since we assume more people will die without getting into the hospital. Total Population This is the population sample size you want to run for your scenario. We use 3 million as the default (roughly the population of the state of Utah, where FlexSim is based). Quarantine Start (Infected Number) This is the number of diagnosed patients needed to trigger the government to start quarantine measures, such as closing schools, restaurants, clubs, etc. Quarantine Reduction % This value corresponds to the effectiveness of the policies set in place to control the virus. This value is a pure estimate, and it would increase as stricter policies are implemented. For example, just closing schools may only slow the virus’ spready by 40%, but a full shutdown that sees everyone stay home—with no one allowed out of their home—may slow the virus 95%.

Healthcare System Inputs These inputs are used to help healthcare providers understand when their facilities will be overrun by diagnosed sick people who need to be admitted to the hospital. Total Hospital Beds This is the total number of hospital beds available for the Total Population. Available Beds (Calculated) This is a calculated number of available beds using the % Beds Available for Sick Patients. % Beds Available for Sick Patients At any given time, a hospital utilizes many of its beds and only has a certain percentage available for incoming patients. The default value allows for 35% of the total beds in a hospital for COVID-19 diagnosed patients. % of Diagnosed that Need Hospital Beds The % of Diagnosed that Need Hospital Beds is a number provided by the CDC. This number is currently at 15% of those that are Diagnosed with the COVID-19 virus.