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Argus Phosphates Formerly Argus FMB Phosphates Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Executive Summary Prices stable Prices in the main destination markets were flat another week on a lack of trade. New sales emerged in Brazil, where Moroccan producer OCP sold 22,000t of MAP in the mid/high-$360s/t cfr. Saudi Arabian producer Ma'aden also sold 50,000t of MAP to Brazil for November shipment, priced on formula. Argentinian DAP/MAP prices remained around $380/t cfr, amid a lack of demand and limited availability. Mexican producer Fertinal closed a tender to sell 20,00025,000t of MAP and 10,000t of DAP for December shipment this week, but no award was reported by presstime. East of Suez, no fresh sales were reported into India, keeping DAP prices unchanged in the low-$370s/t cfr. And no new sales emerged in Pakistan, where DAP is currently priced in the $370-375/t cfr range. Markets have reached a precarious balance. Clarity on further price direction hinges on the annual Ethiopian NPS tender awards to OCP and further rulings in the US next month on the possible countervailing duties.

prICES $/t

Key price assessments

Argus DAP index, points

15 Oct

8 Oct

102.143

102.087

t

DAP/MAP - fob bulk DAP/MAP Tampa

355

355

34

DAP China

355-360

355-360

34

DAP Saudi Arabia

360-362

360-362

34

MAP Baltic

332-334

334-339

u

DAP India

370-372

370-372

34

DAP Pakistan

370-375

370-375

34

MAP Brazil

365-367

365-370

689

689

380-385

375-380

DAP/MAP – cfr bulk

Phosphoric acid India/t P 2O5

u 34

DAP - fca DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free

t

See page 2 for full price table

Key Indicative Prices

375

Brazil MAP cfr

USD/t

Chinese DAP fob

India DAP cfr

350

Market drivers Rabi demand in India and Pakistan starts slow Domestic fertilizer sales in India and Pakistan have started off slowly in the October-March rabi season. In India, suppliers sold 2.04mn t of fertilizers in the first half of the month, down from 4.5mn t in the whole month of October 2019. But DAP levels were in line with last year.

Ethiopian tender award still outstanding No awards have emerged yet under the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation's (EABC) tender to buy 1.09mn t of NPS. OCP submitted the lowest offers. If awarded, it will provide a crucial outlet for OCP in 4Q20-1Q21 with import demand slowing in major markets.

30-60 Day Outlook Flat to firm Supply tightness out of China persists. Pakistan import demand remains. MAP demand west of Suez has quietened.

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

325

hhhhhhh

300

275 17 Oct 19

20 Feb 20

18 Jun 20

15 Oct 20

Data & Download index „„ Ferts Phosphates Spot Deals „„ Phosphate deliveries to Indian ports „„ Phosphates producer commitments „„ Moroccan phosphate and NPK exports

View the methodology used to assess phosphate prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]

Available on the Argus Publications App

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Direct Hedge - 15 October Month

Bid

Offer

Mid

DAP fob Nola (st) October

352

357

354

November

346

348

347

December

346

347

346

4Q 20

345

347

346

1Q 21

344

347

346

MAP Brazil (mt) October

355

365

360

November

355

365

360

December

355

360

358

Phosphate freight Loading

Destination

Rate ($/t) Low/High

Tonnage

Finished Phosphates Tampa

WC India

55-60

43

45

Morocco

Brazil

25-35

20

22

Tampa

Brazil

25-35

27

29

Baltic

Brazil

25-35

32

34

Baltic

India

25-35

56

62

KSA

EC India

25-35

18

20

Phosphate Rock Morocco

South Brazil

30

20

22

Red Sea

WC/EC India

25-35

17

19

Red Sea

Indonesia

25-35

20

22

Morocco

US

25-35

21

23

For a hard copy, please email [email protected], but please note that methodologies are updated frequently and for the latest version, you should visit the internet site.

METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE

Argus Phosphates Methodology Argus uses a precise and transparent methodology to assess prices in all the markets it covers. The latest version of the Argus Phosphates Methodology can be found at: www.argusmedia.com/methodology.

$/t

Phosphates prices

Phosphates prices and derivatives

ARGUS PHOSPHATES Contents: Methodology overview Publication frequency General methodology Assessing price ranges Spot, contract and formula pricing Terms Units Lot and cargo sizes Products and specifications Markets covered

2 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7

Argus DAP index, points DAP/MAP/TSP – fob bulk DAP/MAP Tampa DAP/MAP Tampa equivalent Brazil DAP Tampa equivalent India DAP Tunisia DAP Morocco DAP Morocco P2O5 equiv DAP Morocco equivalent US terminals DAP Lithuania Baltic DAP Russia Baltic/Black Sea DAP China DAP China P2O5 equiv DAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) DAP Jordan DAP Mexico DAP/MAP Australia DAP US Gulf domestic barge $/st DAP Central Florida railcar $/st DAP China ex-works DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free MAP Baltic MAP China 11-44 MAP China 10-50 MAP China 11-52 MAP Morocco MAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) TSP Tunisia TSP Morocco TSP China TSP eastern Med (Lebanon/Israel) DAP /MAP – cfr bulk DAP/MAP Argentina/Uruguay MAP Brazil 11-52 MAP Brazil 11-52 P2O5 equiv MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) P2O5 equiv MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) P 2O5 equiv MAP South Africa DAP India DAP India P2O5 equiv DAP Pakistan DAP Turkey DAP east coast Africa

15 Oct

8 Oct

±

102.143

102.087

0.056

t

355 337-339 326-328 350 350-362 556.14 378-386 350 325-335 355-360 553.02 360-362 350-355 360-365 355-360 355-360 365 335-355 380-385 332-334 290-295 325-345 340 348-352 347-349 245 248-250 230-245 240-245

355 340-345 327-329 350 350-360 554.82 381-385 345-350 325-335 355-360 554.73 360-362 343-350 360-365 355-360 353-360 365 331-351 375-380 334-339 282-290 320-330 340 355-360 347-352 238-240 240-250 230-245 240-245

0.00 4.50 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.32 1.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 5.00 3.50 6.50 10.00 0.00 7.50 1.50 6.00 4.00 0.00 0.00

34

375-383 365-367 585.43 338-345 571.04 315-320 581.65 375 370-372 568.68 370-375 350-360 365-370

375-383 365-370 590.15 338-347 574.78 304-313 563.36 375 370-372 563.06 370-375 350-360 365-370

0.00 1.50 4.72 1.00 3.74 9.00 18.29 0.00 0.00 5.62 0.00 0.00 0.00

34

u u 34 t t u t 34 34 u 34 t 34 34 t 34 t t u t t 34 u u t t 34 34

u u u u t t 34 34 t 34 34 34

$/t

Raw material contracts ± Phosphoric acid/t – P2O5 cfr India cfr western Europe cfr Brazil

LAST UPDATED: JANUARY 2017

The most up-to-date Argus Phosphates methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

www.argusmedia.com

4Q20 689 3Q20 730-755 1Q18 835-855

3Q20 625 2Q20 712-737 4Q17 650-670

64.00 18.00 185.00

3Q20 3Q20 3Q20 3Q20 3Q20

75-80 96-102 112-125 79-84 50-57

2Q20 2Q20 2Q20 2Q20 2Q20

74-78 96-102 110-120 75-80 50-57

1.50 0.00 3.50 4.00 0.00

4Q20 4Q20

69 64-79

3Q20 3Q20

58 59-73

11.50 5.50

t

Oct20

228

Sep20

212

16.00

t

t t t

Phosphate rock (% BPL)

Announcement All data change announcements can be viewed online at www.argusmedia.com/announcements. Alternatively, to be added to the email distribution list for all announcements, please email: [email protected].

fob Jordan (68-70) cfr India (68-70) cfr India (70-72) fob north Africa (69) fob Algeria (65-68)

Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik Issue Ref: 38968

t t 34

Sulphur cfr Tampa cfr north Africa

t

Ammonia cfr Tampa

. Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group

t 34

Page 2 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Spot Sales Selection - 15 October Origin

Seller

Buyer

Destination

Volume ('000t)

Price Delivery Period

Morocco

OCP

TBN

Brazil

22 MAP

Mid/hi-$360s/t cfr Nov

Russia

Phosagro

TBN

Ghent

4 DAP

$380/t fca TBC

Saudi Arabia

Ma'aden

TBN

Brazil

50 MAP

Formula Nov

Morocco

OCP

TBD

Brazil

8 TSP

$265/t cfr Nov

Recent 2020 phosphate tenders Country/Holder

Product

Volume ('000t) Closing date

Iran/ASSC

TSP

Mexico/Fertinal

DAP/MAP

30-35 13/10

India/FACT

Phosrock

40 28/10

40 10/10

Shipment

Status

Nov-March 2021

Closed

Early Dec loading sales tender

Closed

31.75pc P2O5, late Dec arrival

Open

the phosphates world this week

Europe - OCP lines up 30,000t of DAP for various destinations

US - Near-term supply concerns keep barge prices steady, but forward prices remain backwardated

China - DAP availability continues to be tight, offers at $360/t fob and above

Mexico - award under selltender by Fertinal expected imminently

Brazil - OCP sells 22,000t of MAP in mid/high-$360s/t cfr

Ethiopia - Award outstanding in EABC NPS tender

India - rabi buying starts slow, import market quiet

Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section. For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

Page 3 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

North America US Mosaic had no export sales to report.

US domestic Forward supply concerns continued to weigh on phosphate barge liquidity this week, and MAP and DAP prices nominally fluctuated. A prompt MAP barge traded at $382/st fob Nola to frame the high end of this week’s $380-382/st fob Nola range, which dipped slightly from the prior week as market participants cited supportive demand-side conditions, but grappled with uncertainty ahead of the late-November import duties ruling. Domestic October DAP barges were offered at $360/st fob Nola — $3/st below an offer for imported prompt volumes —

to support this week’s $355-360/st fob Nola range, which was notionally raised in the absence of trade at the port. Upriver DAP barges traded from $360-362/st fob Nola equivalents as northbound shipping deadlines for river close went into effect. Sentiment remains largely bullish on MAP, but backwardation persists in the DAP barge market as participants report comparatively adequate near-term supply. There is minimal near-term incentive for buyers to commit to additional tons ahead of the Department of Commerce’s 23 November ruling in the ongoing import duties investigation. Argus estimates 200,000t of combined MAP and DAP will discharge at Nola this month, followed by at least 135,000t in November.

Argus Phosphates Daily New daily price reporting service has now launched

Argus is excited to announce you can now access your complimentary trial to the new, groundbreaking Argus Phosphates Daily service. We are emailing you the Argus Phosphates Daily PDF every day, and you can access it online through Argus Direct. Argus Phosphates Daily offers unique benefits, including: • Greater certainty - Increased price frequency gives you immediate clarity for volatile markets. • Lower risk - Additional data points ensure your business calculations are more robust. • Smarter outcomes - Daily data powers the most sophisticated data analysis and algorithmic trading tools. • Confident approach - We give you the largest editorial team with the greatest geographic reach and most rigorous methodological adherence.

Fertilizers illuminating the markets

We’d love to hear your feedback or any questions on the service. Please contact us directly at [email protected]

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

Page 4 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Brazil October MAP imports

Itaqui Barra dos Coqueiros Aratu Santos Antonina Rio Grande

Russia - 36,000t

Paranagua Tubarao Porto Alegre

Port

'000t

Aratu

29

Itaqui

36

Paranagua

174

Porto Alegre

US - 31,000t Saudi Arabia - 46,000t Morocco - 299,000t

250

Mexico - 45,000t

8

Rio Grande

200

55

Santos

150

109

Tubarao

22

Vila du Conde

14

Vitoria

10

Grand Total

300

100 50

456

0

— Wilson Sons, Argus

Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate

BRL/USD

6.50

Central and Latin America

6.00

Brazil

5.50

MAP prices softened this week in Brazil, as market activity quietened. Availability of fertilizer is tight, but demand has subsided. OCP reports the sale of 22,000t of MAP in the mid/high$360s/t cfr, loading next month. Most enquiries emerging are for arrival in the first quarter and beyond of next year. Demand for shipment in the coming months has, as expected, slowed. But fundamentals remain strong, with farmers increasing forward sales of soybeans in key growing areas. Mato Grosso farmers have already traded 60pc of the 36mn t of soybeans forecast for the 2020-21 cycle, with planting delayed because of a lack of rainfall. That is compared to 36pc last season and the five-year average of 33pc. Crop barter rates remain at record lows, highlighting the affordability of inputs.

5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 Oct 19

Nov 19

Dec 19

Jan 20

Feb Mar 20 20

Apr 20

May 20

Jun 20

Jul 20

Aug 20

Sep 20

Oct 20

Corn and soybean barter rates Corn barter rate (LHS) Soybean barter rate (RHS) 100

26

90

24

80 70 60 50 40

22 20 18 16 14 12

USDA forecasts record Brazil corn, soy crops The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecasts for Brazil's soybean and corn crops unchanged in the 2020-21 season, with both on track for record output. Continue reading >>

10 30 Sep 16 May 17 Jan 18 Sep 18 May 19 Jan 20 Sep 20

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

Page 5 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Brazil’s Mato Grosso begins sales of 2021-22 corn Forward sales of soybeans and corn remain at a record pace in Brazil's central-western state of Mato Grosso, boosted by historic prices, with the first reported trading for the local 2021-22 corn season. Continue reading >>

Europe and former Soviet Union

Argentina

France

DAP/MAP prices remained around $380/t cfr this week, but no new business was reported. Soy planting is expected to start over the coming week, but this depends on rain over the weekend.

DAP is indicated at $385-390/t fca Rouen at the farmer level, and the low/mid-$380s/t fca French Bay.

Mexico A sell-tender by producer Fertinal for an early-December loading cargo is expected to be awarded today. Offers were submitted by 13 October. The decision was not confirmed by press time. Fertinal offered 20,000-25,000t of MAP and 10,000t of DAP under the sale. Trading firms will load two DAP/MAP combination cargoes at Lazaro Cardenas next month, with one under prior commitments into Central America, as reported last week. The destination of the second 35,000t combination cargo has yet to be confirmed. Price levels are indicated in the $360s/t fob. On the import side, a trading firms is looking to source 25,000t of MAP for the Mexican Gulf, loading next month. Pricing remains under discussion on the supply-side, with import levels at around $365/t cfr.

Central America/Caribbean A trading firm will load 30,000t of Moroccan DAP/MAP next month.

Belgium Phosagro has sold a small lot of 4,000t of DAP at $380/t fca duty paid. Indications for Russian DAP have risen to $385/t fca, but no business has been reported at that level.

Germany The German fertilizer market is quiet at the moment. Offers for DAP were reported around $380/t fca and up, but no business was reported.

Italy DAP is priced at $370/t fca for Moroccan product, rising to $375/t fca for incoming product. Meanwhile, product in big bags was reported in the €325-335/t fca range. Price increases are expected in light of anticipated buying in the beginning of November. An Egyptian 11,000t DAP/TSP combination cargo will load shortly aboard the Hatice C for Ravenna. There are expectations that the DAP will be offered at $375/t bulk fca.

UK Historically low harvests have caused cash-flow problems among farmers, keeping demand unusually low for this time of the year. DAP is priced at £310-315/t fca bagged.

Romania There is no DAP available in Constantza for buyers. Some remaining Tunisian product which had been offered at $350/t bagged fca Galati is now priced at $360/t bagged fca.

Lithuania

Argus DAP Index

Argus assessed Lifosa DAP at $350/t fob this week to reflect firming levels in Ghent.

125 120 115 110

Follow us on Twitter @ArgusMediaFertz for market insights from our editors.

105 100 95 90 85 80 Jan 19

May 19

Sep 19

Jan 20

May 20

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

Sep 20

Page 6 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Exports from Jorf Lasfar in Morocco Fixed exports from Jorf Lasfar DAP

1000

MAP

‘000t

NPK/NPS

Product ratio this month DAP

TSP

MAP

900

NPK/NPS

TSP

10

76

800

‘000t

700 600 500 400

359

300

254

200 100 0

Jul 2019

Sep

Nov

Jan 2020

Mar

May

Jul

Sep Total: 698

Top OCP destinations this year

‘000t DAP NPK/NPS

Argentina

Top destinations of OCP DAP this year

MAP TSP

Turkey

US

Brazil

Djibouti

TBC

India

US

Brazil

India 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Africa and Middle East

‘000t

194

228

244

293

1,081 0

200

400

600

800

1000

Top destinations of OCP MAP this year

1200

‘000t

Morocco OCP has sold 30,000t of DAP priced in the low-$360s/t fob, loading next month for western European markets, broadly for Spain. The producer has sold 22,000t of MAP, loading in November, to Brazilian buyers at around $350/t fob equivalent. Freight is $15-17/t from Jorf to Brazil under these sales. The producer is under discussions to likely load a 25,000t MAP cargo at the end of this month for Canada. OCP has also sold 30,000t of DAP/MAP to a trading firm for loading next month to central American markets. No awards were forthcoming this week under Ethiopian EABC's tender to buy more than 1mn t of NPS.

Tunisia GCT has no new DAP sales to report this week, the producer has prior commitments for Bangladesh and GCT's local market.

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

TBC

99

Uruguay

155

Argentina

251

US

413

Brazil

1,454 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Argus Direct subscribers can download this data on Jorf Lasfar fertilizer exports here

Page 7 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Egypt

Pakistan

NCIC has allocated DAP sales through the fourth quarter. DAP is indicated at around the equivalent of $350/t fob. NCIC did not comment. A cargo will load later this month for Bangladesh under prior tender award commitments. NCIC is also set to load 11,000t of DAP/TSP shortly for Italy.

There was no fresh business in Pakistan. Importers expect further business for Chinese DAP for November shipment to be concluded. Indications for DAP remained in the low/mid-$370s/t cfr. Two DAP vessels are expected at Karachi port over the next week: the Chamchuri Naree will discharge around 32,000t of DAP and the Global Legend will deliver 45,000t of DAP for importers Pacific, Agven and Chawla. Domestic prices currently range from Rs3,650-3,790/50kg bag ($449-465/t) on a bagged ex-Karachi basis, reflecting cfr levels of almost $390/t at the high-end, while latest sales into the country took place at around $370/t cfr.

Jordan No new DAP sales emerged from Jordan this week. Fourth quarter production has largely been earmarked for Indian buyers. JPMC will likely load 40,000t of DAP for IPL/IFFCO next month. Argus assessed fob levels notionally at $350355/t fob to reflect current prices in India.

Saudi Arabia Ma'aden reports selling 50,000t of MAP to Brazil for shipment in November. The sale is priced on formula. The producer will also load two vessels of 25,000t of DAP each for Bangladesh under a government-to-government agreement next month.

East Africa A Ma'aden vessel carrying 40,000t of DAP is expected to arrive in Mombasa, Kenya, on 16 October.

Pakistan’s DAP market prepares for rabi crops Pakistan's fertilizer market is getting ready for crop application for the winter October-March rabi season. Strong August and September domestic DAP sales are dimming the outlook for October and November demand, but promising weather outlooks and expected government measures to drive wheat production could generate buying interest. Continue reading >>

Top 5 DAP importers from Apr ‘20 '000t

NFL

322

Indian subcontinent IRC Agro

India No new business emerged in India this week, and DAP prices remained in the $370-372/t cfr range. Buyers are keen to source product for arrival by the first week of November, but availability is tight. Indian government raises crop purchases The Indian government has increased the amount of crops it has bought under its country-wide procurement system, with rice purchases at a record level. Continue reading >> Modest start to India's rabi fertilizer sales Overall sales of fertilizers in India are lagging last year's levels so far this month. Indian farmers purchased 2.04mn t of fertilizers — urea, DAP, MOP, NPKs and SSP — as of yesterday, compared with 4.5mn t in the entire month last year, latest provisional data show (see chart). October marks the start of the winter rabi season, which runs to March. Continue reading >>

396

Kribhco

716

Chambal

1,099

IPL

1,518 0

Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

DAP imports by origin from Apr ‘20 '000t

Jordan

273

Russia

284

Morocco

1,325

China

1,546

Saudi Arabia

1,658 0

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group

200

Page 8 of 14

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Vietnam

East Asia and Oceania China DAP prices remained stable in the $355-360/t fob this week amid thin activity. Suppliers’ offers are upwards of $360/t fob. Export availability is limited for October, as most suppliers cater to the strong domestic demand for winter storage. Reports of sales to India emerged late last week. A south Chinese producer sold 55,000t of DAP to India in the high$350s/t fob based on an estimated freight of $11/t, loading in Fangcheng in late October. Another trader sale of 55,000t of DAP to India also took place at around the same price, loading in Fangcheng in early November. A trading firm is set to load 32,000t of phosphates for Australia at the end of this month from Fangcheng. A southern producer reports that it's set for lowered DAP production for November following an issue at its ammonia facility as of late last week. 10-50 MAP exports prices rose to $325-330/t at the lowend for Latin American markets, but tonnage is almost all earmarked for Australia with levels at $340-345/t fob.

DAP prices increased to Yn2,300-2,390/t ex-works in Hubei province, compared to Yn2,250-2,380/t ex-works in Yunnan. Delivered DAP prices in north China were steady at Yn2,550/t. The delivered prices in Heilongjiang province broadly remained at Yn2,550-2,600/t. The DAP average operating rate remained at 70pc in Hubei and at 65pc in Yunnan. The autumn season is ending and the winter storage season is upcoming. CPFIA’s conference has been delayed by one month from this weekend, with the new epidemic cases in Qingdao. Meanwhile, the MAP market was flat. The average MAP operating rate stabilised at 60pc in Hubei and 50pc in Yunnan. Powdered 10-50 MAP stabilised at Yn2,050-2,100 in Hubei and Yn1,900-1,950/t in Yunnan.

Thailand DAP offers are limited as most importers have already covered their requirements for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, local market participants are waiting for DAP prices to ease again before making any purchases. Domestic demand is weak at the end of the main application season. Healthy rainfall this week has increased water levels in the reservoirs, especially in the central region. This should support dry season crop planting and fertilizer demand in the coming months.

Licensed to: Nanang T Supriyanto, PT Petrokimia Gresik

Australia Importers are lining up shipments for arrival in NovemberDecember, with further Chinese cargoes agreed for the east coast. Argus has identified at least eight phosphates shipments from China to the east coast, with another two likely. Discussions with suppliers outside of the usual origin markets of China, Saudi Arabia and the US are ongoing. Mexican material is not cleared for Australian imports.

TSP

China domestic

Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group

DAP offers from China and Egypt are limited amid weak import demand. Egyptian DAP was last heard sold at $390/t cfr bagged. Domestic demand traditionally rises in the Mekong delta region during November, but low water levels on the Mekong river might restrict farming activity and fertilizer sales this year. DAP imports in September rose to 41,000t from 31,100t a year earlier, preliminary customs data show. January-September imports totalled 435,800t, up from 367,700t a year earlier.

Brazil A buyer purchased around 8,000t of TSP at $265/t cfr for loading next month.

Morocco TSP is priced at around $250/t fob Morocco under latest sales in Brazil.

France TSP is priced for farmers at $290/t fca Rouen.

Tunisia Argus assessed TSP at $245/t fob Tunisia to reflect firming levels in Morocco.

Phosphate rock India FACT has issued a tender to buy 40,000t of phosphate rock, closing on 28 October. The tender stipulates 31.75pc P2O5 content for shipment at the end of December.

Page 9 of 14

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Import and export line-ups Indian DAP arrivals 2018-20 Supplier 2017-18 fertilizer year total April May June July August September October November December January February March TOTAL April May June July August September October November December January '20 February March April May June July August September October Ma'aden Ameropa Ameropa Ma'aden Swiss Midgulf/OCP Midgulf/OCP Ma'aden OCP JPMC JPMC Mosiac OCP YUC Sabic Ma'aden October total November Koch OCP OCP Ma'aden OCP JPMC JPMC Ma'aden Ma'aden YUC Swiss November total

Buyer

Vessel

Fertilizer

Quantity (t) Load Port

Discharge Port

ETA

Kandla Pipavav Kakinada Mundra Pipavav Mundra Mundra Vizag Mundra Kandla Kandla Mundra Mundra Kandla

2/10 3/10 3/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 13/10 16/10 16/10 18/10 19/10 22/10 October October

4,299,470 187,210 839,050 1,137,358 853,436 629,309 694,237 561,003 590,700 349,723 218,925 457,456 376,021 6,894,427 423,423 851,772 679,178 521,884 356,880 712,364 480,998 522,312 178,979 309,759 271,122 137,300 263,452 405,173 834,639 887,120 988,159 735,621 IPL Hindalco IRC Agro Kribhco Hindalco IPL IPL IPL Chambal IPL IFFCO Mosiac Chambal Chambal Chambal IPL

DL Marigold Filia Joy Savita Naree Yantze Eternal Xin An Yuan SM Roberts Bank Ionic Halo Inca Queen Emmanuel C Xia Hai Tong 15 Xia Hai Tong 15 Thor Insuvi Equinox Dawn Dai Shan Hai

DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP

32,813 44,000 60,695 31,800 45,600 71,949 15,750 45,000 57,030 20,900 20,900 50,000 55,000 50,000 44,000 50,000 695,437

Ras al-Khair Fancheng Ust Luga Ras al-Khair Zhenjiang Jorf Lasfar Jorf Lasfar Ras al-Khair Jorf Lasfar Aqaba Aqaba Ras al-Khair Jorf Lasfar Jinzhou Ras al-Khair Ras al-Khair

IPL Mid Gulf/OCP CIL Kribhco Chambal IPL IFFCO IPL Kribhco Chambal Hindalco

New Victory Star Columbia Lindsaylou

DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP DAP

55,000 50,000 50,000 40,000 50,000 20,000 20,000 45,000 40,000 50,000 45,000 465,000

China Jorf Lasfar Jorf Lasfar Ras al-Khair Jorf Lasfar Aqaba Aqaba Ras al-Khair Ras al-Khair China China

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Page 10 of 14

November November November November November November November November November November November

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Indian phosphoric acid shipments during 2018-20 Supplier January '18 February March April May June July August September October November December January '19 February March April May June July August September October November December January '20 February March April May June July August September October OCP Indo Jordan OCP OCP Indo Rama OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP JIFCO OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP October total

Buyer

Vessel

Quantity (t) 351,468 277,446 317,429 278,216 439,768 238,831 430,243 339,316 304,279 415,980 317,753 374,496 505,913 263,076 532,564 396,817 471,013 462,439 299,722 281,242 297,180 333,062 450,833 422,222 389,791 334,720 285,884 164,807 247,764 405,536 475,615 340,734 435,001

Smartchem GSFC CIL FACT IFFCO PPL Smartchem FACT IRC Agro Smartchem Zuari IRC Agro FACT IFFCO GSFC MCFL CIL CIL Smartchem

Mid Osprey Chemroute Oasis Chemocean Leo Mid Osprey Stolt Cedar Chemocean Leo Chemroad Journey Tivoli Park Chemocean Leo Ogino Park Greenwich Park Tivoli Park Ogino Park Stolt Pondo Acadia Park North Sound Chemroad Hawk Chemroad Hawk Chemroad Pegasus

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11,000 20,000 9,000 8,013 32,550 12,580 11,500 7,800 14,155 11,006 10,003 9,098 8,014 10,267 12,000 8,000 20,446 5,000 6,000 226,432

Page 11 of 14

Domestic Load port quantity (t)

ETA

Discharge port

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 7/10 7/10 9/10 13/10 13/10 15/10 15/10 18/10 18/10 21/10 End Oct

JNPT Sikka Kakinada Cochin Kandla Paradip JNPT Cochin Haldia JNPT Goa Haldia Cochin Kandla Sikka Manglaore Kakinada Vizag JNPT

19000 11867 3,382 8485

Safi Aqaba Jorf Lasfar Safi Dakar Jorf Lasfar Jorf Lasfar Safi Jorf Lasfar Safi Jorf Lasfar Safi Safi Aqaba Safi Jorf Lasfar Jorf Lasfar Jorf Lasfar Safi

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Pakistan DAP import line-up in 2019-20 Importer 2019-20 fertilizer year Engro Pakarab Engro Pakarab Engro UAC Chawla Engro Multan Fauji Engro Engro Engro Pakarab Engro Agven Jaffer Chawla Engro Pacific/UAC Engro Agven/Chawla/UAC Pacific Engro FFC Pakarab Pacific/Agven/Chawla Yihua TBC Neelum Seed Fatima Agven/Chawla Total 2020-21 fertilizer year UAC Chawla Fauji Agven/Chawla Engro Engro Engro Pacific Fatima UAC Agven/Chawla Engro UAC Engro Agven/Chawla Engro Multan Pacific, Agven, Chawla Engro FFC Pacific, Agven, Chawla 3 importers Agven, Chawla Fatima Engro Agven, Chawla Total

Supplier

Vessel

Aries Yihua Aries Xingfa Aries Quantum  Quantum River supplier Yihua OCP Aries Aries Aries Yihua Aries Quantum TBC Quantum Aries Agrifert Aries Amber Ameropa Ameropa OCP OCP Quantum Engro OCP Ma'aden Yihua Yihua

Bulk Chile na V Fulmar Kiran Europe Hyderabad Friedrich Shulte Friedrich Schulte GDF Suez North Sea Halil Sahin Ras Ghumays I Star Monica Venture Pearl Wilton Regal Akij Noble Alentejo Clipper Endeavour Praslin Josco Hangzhou Thor Independence Victoria African Macaw Interlink Verity Serene Sky Jay Al Yasat II Poyang Baltic Leopard Ipsea Colossus San Sebastian Amber L DD Voyager

Yihua/Xingfa IPL OCP IPL TBC TBC GCT Ameropa OCP Ma'aden Trading firm Trading firm Yihua Merrycorn Trading firm TBC Trading firm TBC Trading firm OCP TBC Trading firm Trading firm OCP TBC Trading firm

Great Cosmos A C Katherin Bulk Newport Sibulk Tradition Oreo Fratzis Star Emelda Western Maple Star Centaurus Blue Alexandria Bungla Argen /Argan Green Phoenix New Horizon Incredible Blue Densa Falcon Flag Filia Chamchuri Naree Global Legend Senanur Cebi TBC Antigoni B Unison Jasper TBC

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Tonnage ('000t)

Page 12 of 14

Origin Arrival 50 45 45 45 46 16 45 36 33 45 22 50 50 46 47 35 25 19 47 40 55 35 35 55 56 55 45 45 50 16 45 25 1,305

China China China China China  Australia Australia China China Morocco China China China China China Australia China Australia China China China China Australia China Morocco Morocco Australia China Morocco Saudi Arabia China China

April June June July July July August September September October October October October October October October October October October October October October October October November November November November December January March March

25 25 50 14 15 35 44 40 50 25 25 54 35 40 30 50 30 45 22 50 30 30 30 50 30 10 884

China Australia Morocco Australia China China Tunisia China Morocco Saudi Arabia China China China China China China China China China Morocco China China China Morocco Saudi Arabia Australia

April April May May May June June July July July August August September September September September October October October October November November November November November December

Issue 20-42  |  Thursday 15 October 2020

Argus Phosphates

Brazil MAP 2019-20 line-up - selected shipments Charterer January 19 February March April May June July August September October November December January '20 February March April May June July August September October OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP Sabic Americanas OCP Maaden OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP Maaden OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP Mosaic Eurochem Ameropa Eurochem OCP Ameropa Maaden OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP OCP October total November Eurochem

Receiver

Vessel Fertilizer

Quantity ('000t)

Origin

Discharge Port

ETB

ETA

240 154 223 256 387 273 445 363 325 461 270 218 168 145 339 423 425 401 473 583 481 Unifertil Tocantins Heringer OCP Cibrafertil Timac Fornor Tocantins Yara Fertipar Araguaia Yara Fertgrow Tocantins / Heringer Yara Coxilha OCP Piratini Timac Timac Mosaic Tocantins

Piratini Mosaic Yara Yara Heringer Nutrien Tocantins Amaggi Adubos Araguaia OCP Adufertil Yara Fertipar

Yara Ameropa November total

Bbc Neptune Koszalin Koszalin Koszalin Koszalin Koszalin Koszalin Pps Luck Super Caroline Nord Bosporus Ocean Joy Norah Norah Norah Norah Nord Bosporus Tbc Prestige Summit Sw Hansa Baltica Hansa Baltica Hansa Baltica Hansa Baltica Hansa Baltica Ionan Sea Western Fedora Asian Prominience Pure Vision Regius Asian Prominence Densa Dolphin Super Caroline Regius Apogee Wonder Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture Great Venture

MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP MAP

8 6 2 7 3 3 2 14 32 6 40 5 1 8 10 12 22 9 6 7 3 3 3 30 10 25 7 15 20 13 32 9 25 6 5 4 3 1 14 9 8 8 456

Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Saudi Arabia Morocco Saudi Arabia Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Saudi Arabia Morocco Morocco Russia Russia Russia Russia Morocco USA Russia Mexico Russia Morocco Mexico Saudi Arabia Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco

Porto Alegre Aratu Aratu Aratu Aratu Aratu Aratu Vila du Conde Paranagua Aratu Paranagua Itaqui Itaqui Itaqui Itaqui Paranagua Tubarao Rio Grande Rio Grande Rio Grande Rio Grande Rio Grande Rio Grande Santos Vitoria Paranagua Paranagua Rio Grande Santos Itaqui Paranagua Rio Grande Paranagua Santos Santos Santos Santos Santos Santos Santos Santos Santos

2/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 3/10 3/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 7/10 7/10 7/10 7/10 14/10 15/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 17/10 18/10 20/10 21/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 23/10 24/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10 28/10

2/10 23/9 23/9 23/9 23/9 23/9 23/9 24/9 27/9 5/10 3/9 3/10 3/10 3/10 3/10 25/9 14/10 15/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 16/10 11/10 17/10 12/10 20/9 21/10 18/10 6/10 27/9 21/10 24/9 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10 11/10

Monegasque Epee Cape Cross Golden Glint

MAP MAP MAP

32 33 21 86

Russia Saudi Arabia China

Paranagua Rio Grande Paranagua

3/11 4/11 16/11

17/10 4/11 25/10

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