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Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 18, 2020

With official data only

SPAIN

Author: Jose Gefaell heps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Covid19 second wave monitoring – Sept. 18, 2020 ExecuAve Summary • •

Government adjusted again strongly upwards the Cases retroac:vely since January! and Deaths for all August/September. Even aEer these adjustments, in view of the evolu:on of the growth of weekly cases, hospitaliza:ons and deaths, thirteen weeks aEer its onset the current rebound is not a second wave and is subsiding (subject to no further retroac:ve changes!)

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In August/Sept. cases have reached levels above that of March/April. But now mild cases and asymptoma:c are being included, while they were not in March/April (let alone the non-infec:ous, called false posi:ves). In the last two months, 96% of cases were mild and/or asymptoma:c, and only 4% required some kind of hospitaliza:on.

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14d-average of daily deaths increased up to 66, but did not follow the cases in the same propor:on as in March. From May 10, those >60 years are 18% of Cases, but 94% of Deaths (so, 82% of Cases and 6% of Deaths are 60 years old is 2.86% (0.0286) and CFR for those 60 years= 14.71%; simple CFR