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0.50 Favourable survey

Blake Electronics $0

Hire MAI -$100,000

$500,000

0.50 Unfavourable survey $0

Survey 1 $0

$500,000

0.62 Favourable survey $0

Hire I&K

-$300,000

$468,800

0.38 Unfavourable survey 2 $700,000

$0

No product $0

$0

No survey 2 $0

0.6 Successful venture

$700,000 Introduce product -$500,000

$700,000

$2,000,000 0.4 Unsuccessful venture $0

Do nothing $0

$0

0.7 Successful venture $1,400,000 Introduce product -$500,000

$800,000

$2,000,000

$1,400,000

0.3 Unsuccessful venture

avourable survey

-$600,000 1

$0

-$600,000

$800,000 No product -$100,000 $0

-$100,000 0.4 Successful venture $1,400,000

Introduce product -$500,000

$200,000

$2,000,000

$1,400,000

0.6 Unsuccessful venture

nfavourable survey

-$600,000 1

$0

-$600,000

$200,000 No product -$100,000 $0

-$100,000 0.87 Successful venture $1,200,000

Introduce product -$500,000

$940,000

$2,000,000

$1,200,000

0.13 Unsuccessful venture

avourable survey

-$800,000 1

$0

-$800,000

$940,000 No product -$300,000 $0

-$300,000 0.16

Successful venture $1,200,000 Introduce product -$500,000

-$480,000

$2,000,000

$1,200,000

0.84 Unsuccessful venture

nfavourable survey

-$800,000 2

$0

-$800,000

-$300,000 No product -$300,000 $0

-$300,000

$0

uccessful venture $1,500,000 $1,500,000

nsuccessful venture -$500,000 -$500,000

$0

ID 0 0 0 0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 0 0 0 0 19 0

Name 0 TreePlan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Value

Prob 0

Pred 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0.00 0.00

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 0 0 18 18 4 4 6 6 5 5 10 10 2 2 15 15 1 1 19 19 20 20 22 22 21 21 26 26

Kind D D D T D D E T T T E T T T T E T T E E D D E T T T E T T T

NS

S1 3 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

S2 1 18 14 0 6 10 8 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 4 20 22 26 24 0 0 0 28 0 0 0

S3 2 19 15 0 7 11 9 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 5 21 23 27 25 0 0 0 29 0 0 0

S4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

S5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Row 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Col 53 30 65 77 8 23 4 12 2 7 19 27 17 22 62 69 67 72 15 45 38 53 34 42 32 37 49 57 47 52

1 5 5 5 13 13 17 17 21 21 17 17 21 21 9 9 13 13 9 9 13 13 17 17 21 21 17 17 21 21

Mark TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

Case: Blake Electronics Prior Probabilities

P(Successful venture) = P(Unsuccessful venture) =

0.60 0.40

P(Fav survey | Failure) = P(Unfav survey | Failure) =

Probabilities from MAI P(Successful venture | Fav survey) = P(Unsuccessful venture | Fav survey) =

P(Successful venture | Unfav survey) = P(Unsuccessful venture | Unfav survey) = P(Favorable survey) = P(Unfavorable survey) =

Conditional probabilities from I&K P(Fav survey | Succes) = P(Unfav survey | Success) =

0.70 0.30 0.40 0.60 0.50 0.50

0.90 0.10 0.20 0.80

Posterior probabilities for I&K GIVEN Fav survey

Outcome Success Failure

Conditional prob Prior P(Fav survey | Outcome) prob 0.90 0.60 0.20 0.40 P(Fav survey) =

Joint prob 0.54 0.08 0.62

Posterior probabilities for I&K GIVEN pilot fails

Outcome Success Failure

Conditional prob Prior P(Unfav survey | Outcome) prob 0.10 0.60 0.80 0.40 P(Unfav survey) =

Joint prob 0.06 0.32 0.38

Posterior prob 0.87 0.13

Posterior prob 0.16 0.84